Meteosat-11 Airmass RGB

Series of storms over parts of western Europe

27 January 11:00 UTC-28 January 10:00 UTC

Meteosat-11 Airmass RGB
Meteosat-11 Airmass RGB

The first of a series of storms, embedded in strong westerly flow, brings torrential rain to Western and Central Europe - risk of floods is increasing.

Last Updated

04 May 2023

Published on

28 January 2021

By Jochen Kerkmann and Natasa Strelec Mahovic (EUMETSAT)

Forecast charts issued by German Weather Service DWD (Figures 1 and 2) show the cyclone named Olaf approaching the UK on 28 January, followed by Storm Peter coming from the Atlantic on 29 January.

DWD forecast chart 27 Jan
Figure 1: DWD forecast chart from 27 Jan, relevant for 28 January
DWD forecast chart 28 Jan
Figure 2: DWD forecast chart from 28 Jan, relevant for 29 January

The Meteosat-11 Airmass RGB imagery overlaid with H-SAF precipitation product from 28 January 00:00 to 08:00 UTC (Figure 2) shows the intensity of the rainfall within the first system (Olaf).

Figure 3: Meteosat-11 Airmass RGB imagery overlaid with H-SAF precipitation product, 28 January 00:00 to 08:00 UTC.

The loop of the MIMIC TPW product (Figure 4) shows intensive transport of moisture from the Atlantic towards Western Europe, that will become even more intensive with development of the cyclone Peter, which is already indicated in Figure 3 by very high values of TPW over central Atlantic.

Figure 4: Loop of the MIMIC-TPW2 product of total precipitable water (TPW), using morphological compositing of the retrieval from several available operational microwave sensors, 27 January 11:00 UTC-28 January 10:00 UTC (Credit: CIMMS)
Meteoalarm warnings

MeteoFrance issued heavy rain and flood warnings for parts of France in Meteoalarm system for 28 and 29 January (Figure 5) and between 50-100mm of rain was forecast in central-southern Germany over the subsequent six days.