Abstract. Characterizing changes in landscape fire activity at better than hourly temporal resolution is achievable using thermal observations of acti…Abstract. Characterizing changes in landscape fire activity at better than hourly temporal resolution is achievable using thermal observations of actively burning fires made from geostationary Earth Observation (EO) satellites. Over the last decade or more, a series of research and/or operational "active fire" products have been developed from geostationary EO data, often with the aim of supporting biomass burning fuel consumption and trace gas and aerosol emission calculations. Such Fire Radiative Power (FRP) products are generated operationally from Meteosat by the Land Surface Analysis Satellite Applications Facility (LSA SAF) and are available freely every 15 min in both near-real-time and archived form. These products map the location of actively burning fires and characterize their rates of thermal radiative energy release (FRP), which is believed proportional to rates of biomass consumption and smoke emission. The FRP-PIXEL product contains the full spatio-temporal resolution FRP data set derivable from the SEVIRI (Spinning Enhanced Visible and Infrared Imager) imager onboard Meteosat at a 3 km spatial sampling distance (decreasing away from the west African sub-satellite point), whilst the FRP-GRID product is an hourly summary at 5° grid resolution that includes simple bias adjustments for meteorological cloud cover and regional underestimation of FRP caused primarily by underdetection of low FRP fires. Here we describe the enhanced geostationary Fire Thermal Anomaly (FTA) detection algorithm used to deliver these products and detail the methods used to generate the atmospherically corrected FRP and per-pixel uncertainty metrics. Using SEVIRI scene simulations and real SEVIRI data, including from a period of Meteosat-8 "special operations", we describe certain sensor and data pre-processing characteristics that influence SEVIRI's active fire detection and FRP measurement capability, and use these to specify parameters in the FTA algorithm and to make recommendations for the forthcoming Meteosat Third Generation operations in relation to active fire measures. We show that the current SEVIRI FTA algorithm is able to discriminate actively burning fires covering down to 10−4 of a pixel and that it appears more sensitive to fire than other algorithms used to generate many widely exploited active fire products. Finally, we briefly illustrate the information contained within the current Meteosat FRP-PIXEL and FRP-GRID products, providing example analyses for both individual fires and multi-year regional-scale fire activity; the companion paper (Roberts et al., 2015) provides a full product performance evaluation and a demonstration of product use within components of the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS).more
The Electrically Scanning Microwave Radiometer (ESMR) instrument onboard the NIMBUS 5 satellite was a one-channel microwave radiometer that measured t…The Electrically Scanning Microwave Radiometer (ESMR) instrument onboard the NIMBUS 5 satellite was a one-channel microwave radiometer that measured the 19.35 GHz horizontally polarized brightness temperature ( T-B ) from 11 December 1972 to 16 May 1977. The original tape archive data in swath projection have recently been made available online by the NASA Goddard Earth Sciences Data and Information Services Center (GES DISC). Even though the ESMR was a predecessor of modern multi-frequency radiometers, there are still parts of modern processing methodologies which can be applied to the data to derive the sea ice extent globally. Here, we have reprocessed the entire dataset using a modern processing methodology that includes the implementation of pre-processing filtering, dynamical tie points, and a radiative transfer model (RTM) together with numerical weather prediction (NWP) for atmospheric correction. We present the one-channel sea ice concentration (SIC) algorithm and the model for computing temporally and spatially varying SIC uncertainty estimates. Post-processing steps include resampling to daily grids, land-spillover correction, the application of climatological masks, the setting of processing flags, and the estimation of sea ice extent, monthly means, and trends. This sea ice dataset derived from the NIMBUS 5 ESMR extends the sea ice record with an important reference from the mid-1970s. To make it easier to perform a consistent analysis of sea ice development over time, the same grid and land mask as used for EUMETSAT's OSI-SAF SMMR-based sea-ice climate data record (CDR) were used for our ESMR dataset. SIC uncertainties were included to further ease comparison to other datasets and time periods. We find that our sea ice extent in the Arctic and Antarctic in the 1970s is generally higher than those available from the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) Distributed Active Archive Center (DAAC), which were derived from the same ESMR dataset, with mean differences of 240 000 and 590 000 km 2 , respectively. When comparing monthly sea ice extents, the largest differences reach up to 2 million km 2 . Such large differences cannot be explained by the different grids and land masks of the datasets alone and must therefore also result from the differences in data filtering and algorithms, such as the dynamical tie points and atmospheric correction. The new ESMR SIC dataset has been released as part of the ESA Climate Change Initiative (ESA CCI) program and is publicly available at 10.5285/34a15b96f1134d9e95b9e486d74e49cf .(Tonboe et al., 2023)more
This paper presents a novel mapping prediction method for surface solar radiation with linear regression models. The dataset for surface solar radiati…This paper presents a novel mapping prediction method for surface solar radiation with linear regression models. The dataset for surface solar radiation prediction is the daily surface incoming shortwave radiation (SIS) product from CM SAF SARAH-E. The spatial resolution is 0.05° × 0.05° and the temporal coverage is from 2007 to 2016. The first five years (2007–2011) are used as training data, and the remaining five years (2012–2016) are used as test data in the prediction model. Datasets were detrended, de-seasonalized, and normalized before being applied to multiple linear regression (MLR), principal component regression (PCR), stepwise regression (SR), and partial least squares regression (PLSR), which are used to perform prediction mapping. The statistical analysis using MAE, MSE, and RMSE shows that the PCR model had the smallest MAE, MSE, and RMSE as compared to the other three models. The PCR model seems better for SSR mapping prediction over Reunion Island. Although the PCR model provides better prediction results, its MAE, MSE, and RMSE are quite large.more
Recent climate change has caused declines in ice coverage which have lengthened the open water season in the Arctic and increased access to resources …Recent climate change has caused declines in ice coverage which have lengthened the open water season in the Arctic and increased access to resources and shipping routes. These changes have resulted in more vessel activity in seasonally ice-covered regions. While traffic is increasing in the ice-free season, the amount of vessel activity in the marginal ice zone (ice concentration 15–80%) or in pack ice (>80% concentration) remains unclear. Understanding patterns of vessel activities in ice is important given increased safety challenges and environmental impacts. Here, we couple high-resolution ship tracking information with sea ice thickness and concentration data to quantify vessel activity in ice-covered areas of the Pacific Arctic (northern Bering, Chukchi, and western Beaufort Seas). This region is a geo-strategically critical area that contains globally important commercial fisheries and serves as a corridor for Arctic access for wildlife and vessels. We find that vessel traffic in the marginal ice zone is widely distributed across the study area while vessel traffic in pack ice is concentrated along known shipping routes and in areas of natural resource development. Of the statistically significant relationships between vessel traffic and both sea ice concentration and thickness, over 99% are negative, indicating that increasing sea ice is associated with decreasing vessel traffic on a monthly time scale. Furthermore, there is substantial vessel traffic in areas of high concentration for bowhead whales (Balaena mysticetus), and traffic in these areas increased four-fold during the study period. Fishing vessels dominate vessel traffic at low ice concentrations, but vessels categorized as Other, likely icebreakers, are the most common vessel type in pack ice. These findings indicate that vessel traffic in areas of ice coverage is influenced by distant policy and resource development decisions which should be taken into consideration when trying to predict future vessel-ice interactions in a changing climate.more
Given the vast expanse of oceans on our planet, marine aerosols (and sea salt in particular) play an important role in the climate system via multitud…Given the vast expanse of oceans on our planet, marine aerosols (and sea salt in particular) play an important role in the climate system via multitude of direct and indirect effects. The efficacy of their net impact, however, depends strongly on the local meteorological conditions that influence their physical, optical and chemical properties. Understanding the coupling between aerosol properties and meteorological conditions is therefore important. It has been historically difficult to statistically quantify this coupling over larger oceanic areas due to the lack of suitable observations, leading to large uncertainties in the representation of aerosol processes in climate models. Perhaps no other region shows higher uncertainties in the representation of marine aerosols and their effects than the Southern Ocean. During winter the Southern Ocean boundary layer is dominated by sea salt emissions. Here, using 10 years of austral winter period (June, July and August, 2007-2016) space-based aerosol profiling by CALIOP-CALIPSO in combination with meteorological reanalysis data, we investigated the sensitivity of marine aerosol properties over the Southern Ocean (40-65 degrees S) to various meteorological parameters, such as vertical relative humidity (RH), surface wind speed and sea surface temperature (SST) in terms of joint histograms. The sensitivity study is done for the climatological conditions and for the enhanced cyclonic and anticyclonic conditions in order to understand the impact of large-scale atmospheric circulation on the aerosol properties. We find a clear demarcation in the 532 nm aerosol backscatter and extinction at RH around 60 %, irrespective of the state of the atmosphere. The backscatter and extinction increase at higher relative humidity as a function of surface wind speed. This is mainly because of the water uptake by the wind-driven sea salt aerosols at high RH near the ocean surface resulting in an increase in size, which is confirmed by the decreased depolarization for the wet aerosols. An increase in aerosol backscatter and extinction is observed during the anticyclonic conditions compared to cyclonic conditions for the higher wind speeds and relative humidity, mainly due to aerosols being confined to the boundary layer, and their proximity to the ocean surface facilitates the growth of the particles. We further find a very weak dependency of aerosol backscatter on SSTs at lower wind speeds. However, when the winds are stronger than about 12 m s(-1), the backscattering coefficient generally increases with SST. When aerosol properties are investigated in terms of aerosol verticality and in relation to meteorological parameters, it is seen that the aerosol backscatter values in the free troposphere (pressure 60 %, low depolarization values are noticeable in the lower troposphere, which is an indication of the dominance of water-coated and mostly spherical sea salt particles. For RH < 60 %, there are instances when the aerosol depolarization increases in the boundary layer; this is more prominent in the mean and anticyclonic cases, which can be associated with the presence of drier aerosol particles. Based on the joint histograms investigated here, we provide third-degree polynomials to obtain aerosol extinction and backscatter as a function of wind speed and relative humidity. Additionally, backscattering coefficient is also expressed jointly in terms of wind speed and sea surface temperature. Furthermore, depolarization is expressed as a function of relative humidity. These fitting functions would be useful to test and improve the parameterizations of sea salt aerosols in the climate models. We also note some limitations of our study. For example, interpreting the verticality of aerosol properties (especially depolarization) in relation to the meteorological conditions in the free and upper troposphere (pressuremore
The 2021 fire season in Greece was the worst of the past 13 years, resulting in more than 130,000 ha of burnt area, with about 70% consumed by five wi…The 2021 fire season in Greece was the worst of the past 13 years, resulting in more than 130,000 ha of burnt area, with about 70% consumed by five wildfires that ignited and spread in early August. Common to these wildfires was the occurrence of violent pyroconvection. This work presents a meteorological analysis of this outbreak of extreme pyroconvective wildfires. Our analysis shows that dry and warm antecedent weather preconditioned fuels in the fire-affected areas, creating a fire environment that alone could effectively support intense wildfire activity. Analysis of surface conditions revealed that the ignition and the most active spread of all wildfires coincided with the most adverse fire weather since the beginning of the fire season. Further, the atmospheric environment was conducive to violent pyroconvection, as atmospheric instability gradually increased amid the breakdown of an upper-air ridge ahead of an approaching long-wave trough. In summary, we highlight that the severity and extent of the 2021 Greek wildfires were not surprising considering the fire weather potential for the period when they ignited. Continuous monitoring of the large- and local-scale conditions that promote extreme fire behavior is imperative for improving Greece’s capacity for managing extreme wildfires.more
Abstract
In the tropics, deep convection, which is often organized into convective systems, plays a crucial role in the water and energy c…Abstract
In the tropics, deep convection, which is often organized into convective systems, plays a crucial role in the water and energy cycles by significantly contributing to surface precipitation and forming upper-level ice clouds. The arrangement of these deep convective systems, as well as their individual properties, has recently been recognized as a key feature of the tropical climate. Using data from Africa and the tropical Atlantic Ocean as a case study, recent shifts in convective organization have been analyzed through a well-curated, unique record of METEOSAT observations spanning four decades. The findings indicate a significant shift in the occurrence of deep convective systems, characterized by a decrease in large, short-lived systems and an increase in smaller, longer-lived ones. This shift, combined with a nearly constant deep cloud fraction over the same period, highlights a notable change in convective organization. These new observational insights are valuable for refining emerging kilometer-scale climate models that accurately represent individual convective systems but struggle to realistically simulate their overall arrangement.more
In the present paper, the problem of the determination of yearly maximum energy producibility in terms of optimum tilt angle for solar surfaces is add…In the present paper, the problem of the determination of yearly maximum energy producibility in terms of optimum tilt angle for solar surfaces is addressed with reference to 216 locations in France and Italy. Original correlations are proposed to calculate the optimal surface slope as a correction parameter to be applied to the local latitude angle. The correction factor formulas are based on local climate conditions and have been inferred from local monthly insolation data (12-year global and diffuse irradiance, PV-GIS-SARAH platform). An optimization problem is solved aimed at maximizing the yearly collectable energy by a sloped surface, in a range of azimuth values (from South Facing to East Facing), for all the selected locations. Different equation forms have been investigated and compact and accurate formulas have been developed able to provide the optimal tilt as a function of latitude, surface azimuth and clearness parameters. The accuracy of the proposed formulas resulted in a correlation coefficient with respect to the “exact” tilt angles higher than 0.93 for azimuth angles till 60°. Proposed formulas allow up to a 4% increase in collectable solar energy, corresponding, as an example, to a virtual increase in PV module efficiency from 21% to 21.8%.more