A forecasting revolution on its way

The preliminary data from the MTG-I1 satellite, the first of a new generation of meteorological satellites for the even better monitoring and forecasting of severe weather events, are breathtaking

They keep the promise of a revolution in weather forecasting and in nowcasting destructive extreme weather events.

Last Updated

11 September 2023

Published on

11 September 2023

As the calibration and validation of the various elements of the spacecraft and ground segment progresses, data captured by the two main instruments on board MTG-I1, the Flexible Combined Imager (FCI) and the Lightning Imager (LI), were combined for the first time to highlight their synergies. This first set of animations gives us a preview of the system’s future impact.

“These animations demonstrate how the combination of the two instruments will revolutionise nowcasting and the monitoring of severe thunderstorms,’ explains Phil Evans, Director-General, EUMETSAT. “ I am extremely impressed and am looking forward to the innovative applications that will stem from these data after they become operational.”

The high-resolution visible and infrared channels of FCI allow the precise observation and characterisation of clouds and thunderstorms during the day and night, while the LI instrument detects lightning activity as an indicator of strong atmospheric turbulence and convection.

When fully operational, MTG-I1 will empower meteorologists and scientists to monitor extreme weather events with unprecedented accuracy. The new and more precise data will also enable numerical weather prediction models to be even more accurate, thus increasing the reliability of early warnings for extreme weather events and their ability to protect lives and property.

Combined observation from the Flexible Combined Imager (FCI) and the Lightning Imager (LI) on board MTG-I1, starting at 12:00 UTC of the 03/06/2023 and end at 12:00 UTC of the 04/06/2023. This is preliminary commissioning data, not for operational use. Lightning activity is observable the full Earth disc, but is more intense over central Africa, the northern part of South America, Europe, and the Middle East. Cloud and lightning movements are synchronized, following the global circulation patterns (East to West along the Equator, and West to East at higher latitudes). The bright sunglint area, where the Sun's light is reflected by the ocean and small water bodies towards the satellite, traverses from East to West throughout the day.

Combined observation from the Flexible Combined Imager (FCI) and the Lightning Imager (LI) on board MTG-I1, starting at 12:00 UTC of the 03/06/2023 and end at 12:00 UTC of the 04/06/2023. This is preliminary commissioning data, not for operational use. The animation shows widespread lightning activity across Southern Europe and the Mediterranean, when local thunderstorms happened. Additionally, more extensive and enduring storm systems are visible over the Mediterranean, with lightning activity persisting through the night. As expected, it also shows the widespread increase of lightning activity during the day, fading away after sunset. The northern part of Europe is predominantly cloud-free due to the dominance of a large and persistent high-pressure system during the data collection period.

Combined observation from the Flexible Combined Imager (FCI) and the Lightning Imager (LI) on board MTG-I1, starting at 12:00 UTC of the 03/06/2023 and end at 12:00 UTC of the 04/06/2023. This is preliminary commissioning data, not for operational use. This animation shows highly intense lightning activity over extensive areas in the central African region. Local thunderstorms emerge in the afternoon and disappear shortly after sunset, unless they evolve into larger storm clusters known as mesoscale convective systems, which can span over 1,000 km and remain active day and night. The majority of the lightning activity in the animation is observed north of the Equator, as the main trigger, the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), shifts northwards during the Northern Hemisphere summer.

Combined observation from the Flexible Combined Imager (FCI) and the Lightning Imager (LI) on board MTG-I1, starting at 12:00 UTC of the 03/06/2023 and end at 12:00 UTC of the 04/06/2023. This is preliminary commissioning data, not for operational use. Detections are visible far from the camera's central field of view, such as near the disc's edge above the Amazon Rainforest. This animation illustrates the Intertropical Convergence Zone, where clusters of tropical thunderstorms slowly move from the East to the West. If the waters are sufficiently warm between June and November, some of the larger storm clusters can develop into hurricanes affecting the Caribbean and the eastern United States. The animation also clearly depicts that most of the lightning occurs over land and during the local afternoon and evening hours.

“The European cooperation on satellite data is crucial for the SMHI and we look forward to following the operationalisation of the MTG-I1. A forecaster always relies deeply on information from weather observations, especially in situations with rapidly evolving and extreme weather events. The information has to be accurate and with high resolution to capture local phenomena, something the MTG-I1 will be able to provide”, says Håkan Wirtén, Director General, SMHI.

Storm Hans recently swept through Sweden, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, Latvia, Lithuania, and Norway, causing extreme rainfall, deadly landslides, extensive flooding, and generally putting the lives and livelihoods of entire regions at risk.

The MTG-I1 animation with storm Hans shows how hot and moist air from southern Europe hit the cooler air in Scandinavia, resulting in massive thunderstorms. As the flow of energy and humidity continued, the storm lasted several days with heavy rains and strong winds.

Storm Hans above Scandinavia – Comparison between the SEVIRI instrument on board MSG and the Flexible Combined Imager (FCI) on board MTG-I1 – 07.08.2023 at 08:00 UTC - (data not for operational use).

SEVIRI

FCI

Clouds containing ice particles are visible in cyan, while water clouds are in shades of white or light pink. The increased resolution provided by the FCI data compared to SEVIRI is striking, it makes a real difference for the observation of small cloud structures like the small cumulus clouds above the Baltic Sea as well as cloud top features related to the large storm that brought heavy precipitation to Sweden and Norway. An isolated storm over Finland, in the upper right of the FCI image, nicely shows the shade of the storm top on the underlying low clouds and a very clear thunderstorm appearance with lumpy overshooting tops above it. In addition, the resolution of the features on land is also exceptional, with small islands and lakes clearly visible.

Storm Hans above Scandinavia, observed by the Flexible Combined Imager (FCI) on board MTG-I1 - from 05.08.2023 at 14:00 to 07.08.2023 at 08:00 (data not for operational use).

Clouds are visible in their natural white and grey shades, while land features are in green with high resolution showing great detail. The most striking feature in this animation is the movement of the clouds associated with the movement of the polar front across the European continent.

The topography of the cloud tops, as well as their shadows, are very visible thanks to the high resolution of the FCI. The shorter wavelengths available on the FCI used for this animation are helpful to better visualise aerosols in the atmosphere, especially during the early morning hours when a wide cloud-free area (due to a high pressure system) is seen filled with a semi-transparent layer of smoke. A careful look over the water bodies reveals the difference in ocean colour, mostly around coasts, which may be due to different water turbidity or enhanced concentrations of different algae species or plankton.

Storm Hans above Scandinavia – “Sandwich” comparison between SEVIRI on board MSG and the Flexible Combined Imager (FCI) on board MTG-I1 – 07.08.2023 at 08:00 UTC - (data not for operational use).

SEVIRI

FCI

This type of “sandwich” visualisation perfectly shows the difference in cloud temperatures: from red for colder parts to blue for warmer parts. It is particularly useful for observing and nowcasting storms and severe weather events as it clearly visualises varying cloud tops that can give information about the storm’s dynamics. In this comparison, the benefits of the higher spatial resolution from the FCI data is most beneficial in high latitudes, seen here over northern Europe. On top of the storm in the bottom right corner of the FCI image, one can clearly see at least three overshooting tops with colder (red) pixels. In the SEVIRI image, the structure of the storm top is not as clearly defined. The same can be observed with the storm over the left half of the images: the coldest tops are clearly identified in the FCI image but are more diluted in the SEVIRI image.

Storm Hans above Scandinavia, ”cloud phase animation” by the Flexible Combined Imager on board MTG-I1 - from 05.08.2023 at 14:00 to 07.08.2023 at 08:00 (data not for operational use).

This new type of observation, not possible with the SEVIRI instrument on board MSG, enables meteorologists to know the composition of the clouds: from liquid water droplets (yellow or purple, depending on the size of the droplets) to ice crystals (shades of blue). Different shades of blue indicate the size of the icy particles within the cloud top or on it, indicating the severity of the storm. In this animation, one can clearly see convective clouds rising towards the top of the lower part of the atmosphere (the tropopause) where the temperature drops and their liquid water droplets turns into ice crystals.

Such extreme weather events are likely to become increasingly frequent as the Earth’s climate keeps changing. Freely accessible, timely and high-resolution global Earth observation data, such as those distributed daily by EUMETSAT, will play an increasingly important role in how we protect our populations from such risks.

MTG-I1 was launched on 13 December 2022. It is operated by EUMETSAT from its headquarters in Darmstadt, Germany. The satellite was procured by ESA, fulfilling the requirements established by EUMETSAT in consultation with the meteorological services in its member states. Thales Alenia Space (France), MTG prime contractor, built the imaging instrument, the Flexible Combined Imager, and integrated it onto the MTG-I1 satellite, for which OHB (Germany) supplied the platform. The Lightning Imager was developed by Leonardo (Italy).

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