The 2021 fire season in Greece was the worst of the past 13 years, resulting in more than 130,000 ha of burnt area, with about 70% consumed by five wi…The 2021 fire season in Greece was the worst of the past 13 years, resulting in more than 130,000 ha of burnt area, with about 70% consumed by five wildfires that ignited and spread in early August. Common to these wildfires was the occurrence of violent pyroconvection. This work presents a meteorological analysis of this outbreak of extreme pyroconvective wildfires. Our analysis shows that dry and warm antecedent weather preconditioned fuels in the fire-affected areas, creating a fire environment that alone could effectively support intense wildfire activity. Analysis of surface conditions revealed that the ignition and the most active spread of all wildfires coincided with the most adverse fire weather since the beginning of the fire season. Further, the atmospheric environment was conducive to violent pyroconvection, as atmospheric instability gradually increased amid the breakdown of an upper-air ridge ahead of an approaching long-wave trough. In summary, we highlight that the severity and extent of the 2021 Greek wildfires were not surprising considering the fire weather potential for the period when they ignited. Continuous monitoring of the large- and local-scale conditions that promote extreme fire behavior is imperative for improving Greece’s capacity for managing extreme wildfires.more
Abstract
In the tropics, deep convection, which is often organized into convective systems, plays a crucial role in the water and energy c…Abstract
In the tropics, deep convection, which is often organized into convective systems, plays a crucial role in the water and energy cycles by significantly contributing to surface precipitation and forming upper-level ice clouds. The arrangement of these deep convective systems, as well as their individual properties, has recently been recognized as a key feature of the tropical climate. Using data from Africa and the tropical Atlantic Ocean as a case study, recent shifts in convective organization have been analyzed through a well-curated, unique record of METEOSAT observations spanning four decades. The findings indicate a significant shift in the occurrence of deep convective systems, characterized by a decrease in large, short-lived systems and an increase in smaller, longer-lived ones. This shift, combined with a nearly constant deep cloud fraction over the same period, highlights a notable change in convective organization. These new observational insights are valuable for refining emerging kilometer-scale climate models that accurately represent individual convective systems but struggle to realistically simulate their overall arrangement.more
In the present paper, the problem of the determination of yearly maximum energy producibility in terms of optimum tilt angle for solar surfaces is add…In the present paper, the problem of the determination of yearly maximum energy producibility in terms of optimum tilt angle for solar surfaces is addressed with reference to 216 locations in France and Italy. Original correlations are proposed to calculate the optimal surface slope as a correction parameter to be applied to the local latitude angle. The correction factor formulas are based on local climate conditions and have been inferred from local monthly insolation data (12-year global and diffuse irradiance, PV-GIS-SARAH platform). An optimization problem is solved aimed at maximizing the yearly collectable energy by a sloped surface, in a range of azimuth values (from South Facing to East Facing), for all the selected locations. Different equation forms have been investigated and compact and accurate formulas have been developed able to provide the optimal tilt as a function of latitude, surface azimuth and clearness parameters. The accuracy of the proposed formulas resulted in a correlation coefficient with respect to the “exact” tilt angles higher than 0.93 for azimuth angles till 60°. Proposed formulas allow up to a 4% increase in collectable solar energy, corresponding, as an example, to a virtual increase in PV module efficiency from 21% to 21.8%.more
Clouds impact the radiative transfer of the Earth's atmosphere and strongly influence satellite measurements in the ultraviolet-visible (UV-vis) and i…Clouds impact the radiative transfer of the Earth's atmosphere and strongly influence satellite measurements in the ultraviolet-visible (UV-vis) and infrared (IR) spectral ranges. For satellite measurements of trace gases absorbing in the UV-vis spectral range, particularly clouds ultimately determine the vertical sensitivity profile, mainly by reducing the sensitivity for trace-gas columns below the cloud. The Mainz iterative cloud retrieval utilities (MICRU) algorithm is specifically designed to reduce the error budget of trace-gas retrievals, such as those for nitrogen dioxide (NO2), which strongly depends on the accuracy of small cloud fractions (CFs) in particular. The accuracy of MICRU is governed by an empirical parameterisation of the viewing-geometry-dependent background surface reflectivity taking instrumental and physical effects into account. Instrumental effects are mainly degradation and polarisation effects; physical effects are due to the anisotropy of the surface reflectivity, e.g. shadowing of plants and sun glitter. MICRU is applied to main science channel (MSC) and polarisation measurement device (PMD) data collected between April 2007 and June 2013 by the Global Ozone Monitoring Experiment 2A (GOME-2A) instrument aboard the MetOp-A satellite. CFs are retrieved at different spectral bands between 374 and 758 nm. The MICRU results for MSC and PMD at different wavelengths are intercompared to study CF precision and accuracy, which depend on wave-length and spatial correlation. Furthermore, MICRU results are compared to FRESCO (fast retrieval scheme for clouds from the oxygen A band) and OCRA (optical cloud recognition algorithm) operational cloud products. We show that MICRU retrieves small CFs with an accuracy of 0.04 or better for the entire 1920 km wide swath with a potential bias between -0.01 and -0.03. CFs retrieved at shorter wavelengths are less affected by adverse surface heterogeneities. The comparison to the operational CF algorithms shows that MICRU significantly reduces the dependence on viewing angle, time, and sun glitter. Systematic effects along coasts are particularly small for MICRU due to its dedicated treatment of land and ocean surfaces. The MICRU algorithm is designed for spectroscopic instruments ranging from the GOME to Sentinel-5P/Tropospheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI) but is also applicable to UV-vis imagers like the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR), the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS), and Sentinel-2.more
Methane emissions from natural gas are of ever-increasing importance as we struggle to reach Paris climate targets. Locating and measuring emissions f…Methane emissions from natural gas are of ever-increasing importance as we struggle to reach Paris climate targets. Locating and measuring emissions from natural gas can be particularly difficult as they are often widely distributed across supply chains. Satellites are increasingly used to measure these emissions, with some such as TROPOMI giving daily coverage worldwide, making locating and quantifying these emissions easier. However, there is little understanding of the real-world detection limits of TROPOMI, which can cause emissions to go undetected or be misattributed. This paper uses TROPOMI and meteorological data to calculate, and create a map of, the minimum detection limits of the TROPOMI satellite sensor across North America for different campaign lengths. We then compared these to emission inventories to determine the quantity of emissions that can be captured by TROPOMI. We find that minimum detection limits vary from 500–8800 kg/h/pixel in a single overpass to 50–1200 kg/h/pixel for a yearlong campaign. This leads to 0.04 % of a year's emissions being captured in a single (day) measurement to 14.4 % in a 1-year measurement campaign. Assuming gas sites contain super-emitters, emissions of between 4.5 % - 10.1 % from a single measurement and 35.6 % - 41.1 % for a yearlong campaign are captured.more
Demand for electricity is constantly increasing, and production is facing new constraints due to the current world situation. An alternative to standa…Demand for electricity is constantly increasing, and production is facing new constraints due to the current world situation. An alternative to standard energy production methodologies is based on the use of renewable sources; however, these methodologies do not produce energy consistently due to weather factors. This results in a significant commitment of the user who must appropriately distribute loads in the most productive time slots. In this paper, a comparison is made between two methods of predicting solar energy production, one statistical and the other meteorological. For this work, a system capable of presenting the scheduling of household appliances is tested. The system is able to predict the energy consumption of the users and the energy production of the solar system. The system is tested using data from three different users, and the mean percentage of consumption reduction is about 77.73%. This is achieved through optimized programming of appliance use that also considers user comfort.more
The spatial quantification of solar resources is necessary for the deployment of solar systems and must consider the local specificities of territorie…The spatial quantification of solar resources is necessary for the deployment of solar systems and must consider the local specificities of territories, such as complex topography in mountainous areas. This paper presents a methodology for obtaining solar cadastres, based on the Solar Energy on Building Envelopes (SEBE) model incorporated in QGIS and applied to French municipalities. The differences in solar potential between plain and mountain villages are analyzed through the simulation of 92 carefully selected villages located in these two types of regions. The distributions of annual rooftop irradiation per building are obtained for each studied village and approximated with a Johnson’s SU density function. From this arises the definition of two statistical indicators: the mode and the spread at one-third maximum. Main results include a mean decrease in the mode of 189 kWh/m2 and a higher dispersion of 69 kWh/m2 between mountain and plain villages. Two physical indicators, the Sky View Index (SVI) and the Diffuse Fraction Index (DFI), are defined to explain these differences in the shape of the distributions. Higher cloud covers (high DFI) and the presence of distant shading effects (low SVI), caused by terrain relief, explains respectively the smaller modes and the higher dispersion observed in mountainous areas. SVI, DFI and latitude are fed to a multiple linear regression model, allowing the estimation of distributions with smaller computational costs than the developed methodology. Overall, this analysis demonstrates that the characteristics of mountainous environments greatly influence solar resources and should be considered in energy planning.more
The vegetative development of grapevines is orchestrated by very specific meteorological conditions. In the wine industry vineyards demand diligent mo…The vegetative development of grapevines is orchestrated by very specific meteorological conditions. In the wine industry vineyards demand diligent monitoring, since quality and productivity are the backbone of the economic potential. Regional climate indicators and meteorological information are essential to winemakers to assure proper vineyard management. Satellite data are very useful in this process since they imply low costs and are easily accessible. This work proposes a statistical modelling approach based on parameters obtained exclusively from satellite data to simulate annual wine production. The study has been developed for the Douro Demarcated Region (DDR) due to its relevance in the winemaking industry. It is the oldest demarcated and controlled winemaking region of the world and listed as one of UNESCO’s World Heritage regions. Monthly variables associated with Land Surface Temperatures (LST) and Fraction of Absorbed Photosynthetic Active Radiation (FAPAR), which is representative of vegetation canopy health, were analysed for a 15-year period (2004 to 2018), to assess their relation to wine production. Results showed that high wine production years are associated with higher than normal FAPAR values during approximately the entire growing season and higher than normal values of surface temperature from April to August. A robust linear model was obtained using the most significant predictors, that includes FAPAR in December and maximum and mean LST values in March and July, respectively. The model explains 90% of the total variance of wine production and presents a correlation coefficient of 0.90 (after cross validation). The retained predictors’ anomalies for the investigated vegetative year (October to July) from 2017/2018 satellite data indicate that the ensuing wine production for the DDR is likely to be below normal, i.e., to be lower than what is considered a high-production year. This work highlights that is possible to estimate wine production at regional scale based solely on low-resolution remotely sensed observations that are easily accessible, free and available for numerous grapevines regions worldwide, providing a useful and easy tool to estimate wine production and agricultural monitoring.more