Abstract. The Bureau of Meteorology Atmospheric high-resolution
Regional Reanalysis for Australia (BARRA) is the first atmospheric regional
reanalysis…Abstract. The Bureau of Meteorology Atmospheric high-resolution
Regional Reanalysis for Australia (BARRA) is the first atmospheric regional
reanalysis over a large region covering Australia, New Zealand, and Southeast
Asia. The production of the reanalysis with approximately 12 km horizontal
resolution – BARRA-R – is well underway with completion expected in 2019.
This paper describes the numerical weather forecast model, the data
assimilation methods, the forcing and observational data used to produce
BARRA-R, and analyses results from the 2003–2016 reanalysis. BARRA-R
provides a realistic depiction of the meteorology at and near the surface
over land as diagnosed by temperature, wind speed, surface pressure, and
precipitation. Comparing against the global reanalyses ERA-Interim and MERRA-2,
BARRA-R scores lower root mean square errors when evaluated against
(point-scale) 2 m temperature, 10 m wind speed, and surface pressure
observations. It also shows reduced biases in daily 2 m temperature maximum
and minimum at 5 km resolution and a higher frequency of very heavy
precipitation days at 5 and 25 km resolution when compared to gridded
satellite and gauge analyses. Some issues with BARRA-R are also identified:
biases in 10 m wind, lower precipitation than observed over the tropical
oceans, and higher precipitation over regions with higher elevations in south
Asia and New Zealand. Some of these issues could be improved through
dynamical downscaling of BARRA-R fields using convective-scale (more
Cloud detection is a necessary step in the generation of land surface temperature (LST) climate data records (CDRs) and affects data quality and uncer…Cloud detection is a necessary step in the generation of land surface temperature (LST) climate data records (CDRs) and affects data quality and uncertainty. We present here a sensor-independent Bayesian cloud detection algorithm and show that it is suitable for use in the production of LST CDRs. We evaluate the performance of the cloud detection with reference to two manually masked datasets for the Advanced Along-Track Scanning Radiometer (AATSR) and find a 7.9% increase in the hit rate and 4.9% decrease in the false alarm rate when compared to the operational cloud mask. We then apply the algorithm to four instruments aboard polar-orbiting satellites, which together can produce a global, 25-year LST CDR: the second Along-Track Scanning Radiometer (ATSR-2), AATSR, the Moderate Resolution Spectroradiometer (MODIS Terra) and the Sea and Land Surface Temperature Radiometer (SLSTR-A). The Bayesian cloud detection hit rate is assessed with respect to in situ ceilometer measurements for periods of overlap between sensors. The consistency of the hit rate is assessed between sensors, with mean differences in the cloud hit rate of 4.5% for ATSR-2 vs. AATSR, 4.9% for AATSR vs. MODIS, and 2.5% for MODIS vs. SLSTR-A. This is important because consistent cloud detection performance is needed for the observational stability of a CDR. The application of a sensor-independent cloud detection scheme in the production of CDRs is thus shown to be a viable approach to achieving LST observational stability over time.more
Estimated solar irradiances from CAMS, PVGIS SARAH-2, Solargis, Meteonorm, PVGIS ERA5, and NASA POWER are benchmarked against measurements conducted a…Estimated solar irradiances from CAMS, PVGIS SARAH-2, Solargis, Meteonorm, PVGIS ERA5, and NASA POWER are benchmarked against measurements conducted at 34 ground stations in Norway at latitudes between 58 and 76°N. We find that the data products that mainly rely on high-resolution, geostationary satellite images, i.e., CAMS, PVGIS SARAH-2, and Solargis, have higher accuracy with lower relative Mean Absolute Error (rMAE) and relative Mean Bias Error. By dividing the stations in distinct categories, such as above 65°N, snow-affected and horizon-shaded, challenges with irradiance estimation that are common in Norway and at high latitudes in general are highlighted and discussed. The accuracy of the data products is dependent on latitude, and by excluding stations above 65°N, the median rMAE of the different data products improves 3.2 – 9.4 %abs compared to the median rMAE when including all stations, depending on data product. Similarly, by excluding snow-affected stations, the median rMAE improves 1.9 – 8.1 %abs, depending on data product. The improvement in rMAE by excluding snow-affected stations is partially related to the difficulty of separating snow on the ground from cloud cover in satellite images. This difficulty is illustrated by concrete examples of irradiance time series from clear sky days when the ground is covered in snow. Although the performance of the data products is dependent on the categorization of stations, i.e., latitude, snow conditions, and local topography, the relative performance between the products is maintained regardless of sub-division.more
Achieving carbon-neutrality is increasing the demand of renewable electricity which is raising the competition for land and associated acquisition cos…Achieving carbon-neutrality is increasing the demand of renewable electricity which is raising the competition for land and associated acquisition costs. Installation of floating photovoltaic (FPV) on existing hydropower reservoirs offers one solution to limited land availability while providing solar electricity, leveraging water bodies, and reducing water evaporation losses. This work assesses the potential electricity output of FPVs at regional and national levels on 337 hydropower reservoirs in the EU27 considering four scenarios and two types of floaters. Evaporation, water losses and water savings due to FPVs installation are also estimated using climatic parameters for the year 2018. The reservoirs' total water losses are estimated at 9380 mcm. The installation of FPVs of equal installed capacity as the hydropower plants, has the potential to generate 42.31 TWh covering 2.3% of the total reservoir area. In this case, up to 557 mcm could be saved by installing FPV. The FPVs' multiple benefits and the potential offered by existing hydropower reservoirs are compatible with the EU's goals for net zero emissions and more autonomy from imported fossil fuels and energy transformation.more
Satellite products provide the best way to monitor the solar radiation reaching the Earth’s surface on a global scale. However, their capability to mo…Satellite products provide the best way to monitor the solar radiation reaching the Earth’s surface on a global scale. However, their capability to monitor solar radiation trends needs to be constantly evaluated. This depends on their temporal stability and the accurate representation of all processes driving solar radiation. This study evaluates these aspects by comparing and cross-comparing different solar radiation products (ERA5, CAMS-RAD 4.6, SARAH-3, CLARA-A3, CERES-EBAF 4.2) against in-situ measurements over Europe. All products show a moderate positive bias over Europe but strong differences in their root mean squared deviation (RMSD) related to their different cloud transmittance models. Geostationary-based products (SARAH-3, CAMS-RAD 4.6) provide the smallest RMSD closely followed by CLARA-A3, whereas ERA5 shows a large RMSD due to random errors in cloud transmittance. All products show an increase in surface solar radiation, or brightening, over the last 40 years over Europe, but the magnitude of the trends and their spatiotemporal variability differ between products. Despite finding temporal inhomogeneities in some products, the different trends are mostly due to different aerosol modeling approaches implemented by each product. Both SARAH-3 (+2.3 W/m2/decade, 2001–22) and CERES-EBAF 4.2 (+2.2 W/m2/decade, 2001–22) provide the most consistent trends compared to in-situ data, showing that after stabilizing in the late 2000s, brightening is particularly recovering in Western Europe. In-situ measurements show a reduction of aerosol optical depth from 2001 to 2022 that has been accentuated in the last 10 years, particularly in Western Europe. This would be consistent with the hypothesis that brightening recovery is driven by an aerosol reduction, though other analyses suggest that clouds also play a role in this recovery. More work is needed to understand the contribution of aerosols to solar radiation trends and the exact aerosol effects represented by each solar radiation product.more
This study calibrated and compared the capabilities of hourly global horizontal irradiance (GHI) clear sky models for six Moroccan locations, using th…This study calibrated and compared the capabilities of hourly global horizontal irradiance (GHI) clear sky models for six Moroccan locations, using the McClear clear sky model as a reference. Complex clear sky models, namely Bird, Simplified Solis, Ineichen and Perez, and simple clear sky models, namely Adnot–Bourges–Campana–Gicquel (ABCG), Berger–Duffie, and Haurwitz were tested. The SOLCAST satellite-based dataset estimates were validated against the McClear clear sky model. pvlib python was used to configure the models, and ERA5 hourly fractional cloud cover was used to identify clear-sky days. The study period was from 2014 to 2021, and the study sites were in different climatic regions in Morocco. Bar graphs, tables, and quantitative statistical metrics, namely relative mean bias error (rMBE), relative root mean square error (rRMSE), relative mean absolute error (rMAE), and the coefficient of determination (R2), were used to quantify the skill of the clear sky model at different sites. The overall rMBE was negative in 5/6 sites, indicating consistent overestimation of GHI, and positive in Tantan (14.4%), indicating frequent underestimation of GHI. The overall rRMSE varied from 6 to 22%, suggesting strong agreement between clear sky models and the McClear clear sky model. The overall correlation was greater than 0.96, indicating a very strong relationship. Overall, the Bird clear sky model proved to be the most feasible. Complex clear sky models outperformed simple clear sky models. The SOLCAST satellite-based dataset and ERA5 cloud fraction information could well be used with quantifiable certainty as an accurate clear sky model in the study region and in other areas where complex clear sky models’ inputs are not available.more