Given the important role of clouds in our planet’s climate system, it is crucial to further improve our understanding of their governing processes as …Given the important role of clouds in our planet’s climate system, it is crucial to further improve our understanding of their governing processes as well as the resulting spatio-temporal variability of their properties. This co-variability of different cloud optical properties is adequately represented through the well-established concept of cloud regimes. The focus of the present study lies on the creation of a cloud regime dataset over Europe, named “Cloud Regime dAtAset based on the CLAAS-2.1 climate data record” (CRAAS), in order to analyze their variability and their changes at different spatio-temporal scales. In addition, co-occurrences between the cloud regimes and large-scale weather patterns are investigated. The CLoud property dAtAset using Spinning Enhanced Visible and Infrared (SEVIRI) edition 2.1 (CLAAS-2.1) data record, which is produced by the Satellite Application Facility on Climate Monitoring (CM SAF), was used as the basis for the derivation of the cloud regimes over Europe for a 14-year period (2004–2017). In particular, the cloud optical thickness (COT) and cloud top pressure (CTP) products of CLAAS-2.1 were used in order to compute 2D histograms. Then, the k-means clustering algorithm was applied to the generated 2D histograms in order to derive the cloud regimes. Eight cloud regimes were identified, which, along with the geographical distribution of their frequency of occurrence, assisted in providing a detailed description of the climate of the cloud properties over Europe. The annual and diurnal variabilities of the eight cloud regimes were studied, and trends in their frequency of occurrence were also examined. Larger changes in the frequency of occurrence of the produced cloud regimes were found for a regime associated to alto- and nimbo-type clouds and for a regime connected to shallow cumulus clouds and fog (−0.65% and +0.70% for the time period of the study, respectively).more
Essay on the reconstruction of the Meteosat VIS band spectral response function in the course of the FIDUCEO project. Conference paper contributed to …Essay on the reconstruction of the Meteosat VIS band spectral response function in the course of the FIDUCEO project. Conference paper contributed to the ESA Living Planet Symposium, Prague, May 2016:\textlessbr\textgreaterPaper 1442 - Session title: Atmosphere & Climate Posters\textlessstrong\textgreaterATMO-178 - Creating Fidelitous Climate Data Records from Meteosat First Generation VIS Band Observations\textless/strong\textgreatermore
The recent Arctic sea ice loss is a key driver of the amplified surface warming in the northern high latitudes, and simultaneously a major source of u…The recent Arctic sea ice loss is a key driver of the amplified surface warming in the northern high latitudes, and simultaneously a major source of uncertainty in model projections of Arctic climate change. Previous work has shown that the spread in model predictions of future Arctic amplification (AA) can be traced back to the inter-model spread in simulated long-term sea ice loss. We demonstrate that the strength of future AA is further linked to the current climate’s, observable sea ice state across the multi-model ensemble of the 6th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). The implication is that the sea-ice climatology sets the stage for long-term changes through the 21st century, which mediate the degree by which Arctic warming is amplified with respect to global warming. We determine that a lower base-climate sea ice extent and sea ice concentration (SIC) in CMIP6 models enable stronger ice melt in both future climate and during the seasonal cycle. In particular, models with lower Arctic-mean SIC project stronger future ice loss and a more intense seasonal cycle in ice melt and growth. Both processes systemically link to a larger future AA across climate models. These results are manifested by the role of climate feedbacks that have been widely identified as major drivers of AA. We show in particular that models with low base-climate SIC predict a systematically stronger warming contribution through both sea-ice albedo feedback and temperature feedbacks in the future, as compared to models with high SIC. From our derived linear regressions in conjunction with observations, we estimate a 21st-century AA over sea ice of 2.47–3.34 with respect to global warming. Lastly, from the tight relationship between base-climate SIC and the projected timing of an ice-free September, we predict a seasonally ice-free Arctic by mid-century under a high-emission scenario.more
The broad geographical coverage and high temporal and spatial resolution of geostationary satellite data provide an excellent opportunity to collect i…The broad geographical coverage and high temporal and spatial resolution of geostationary satellite data provide an excellent opportunity to collect information on variables whose spatial distribution and temporal variability are not adequately represented by in situ networks. This study focuses on assessing the effectiveness of two geostationary satellite-based sunshine duration (SDU) datasets over Brazil, given the relevance of SDU to various fields, such as agriculture and the energy sector, to ensure reliable SDU data over the country. The analyzed datasets are the operational products provided by the Satellite Application Facility on Climate Monitoring (CMSAF) that uses data achieved with the Meteorological Satellite (Meteosat) series and by the Satellite and Meteorological Sensors Division of the National Institute for Space Research (DISSM–INPE) that employs Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) data. The analyzed period ranges from September 2013 to December 2017. The mean bias error (MBE), mean absolute error (MAE), root mean squared error (RMSE), correlation coefficient (r), and scatterplots between satellite products and in situ daily SDU measurements provided by the National Institute of Meteorology (INMET) were used to access the performance of the products. They were calculated on a monthly basis and grouped into climate regions. The statistical parameters exhibited a uniform spatial distribution, indicating homogeneity within a given region. Except for the tropical northeast oriental (TNO) region, there were no significant seasonal dependencies observed. The MBE values for both satellite products were generally low across most regions in Brazil, mainly between 0 and 1 h. The correlation coefficient (r) results indicated a strong agreement between the estimated values and the observed data, with an overall r value exceeding 0.8. Nevertheless, there were notable discrepancies in specific areas. The CMSAF product showed a tendency to overestimate observations in the TNO region, with the MBE consistently exceeding 1 h for all months, while the DISSM product exhibited a negative gradient of the MBE values in the west–east direction in the northern portion of Brazil. The scatterplots for the TNO region revealed that the underestimation pattern observed in the DISSM product was influenced by the sky condition, with more accurate estimations observed under cloudy skies. Additional analysis suggested that the biases observed might be attributed to the misrepresentation of clear-sky reflectance. In the case of the CMSAF product, the overestimation tendency observed in the TNO region appeared to be a result of systematic underestimation of the effective cloud albedo. The findings indicated that both satellite-based SDU products generally exhibited good agreement with the ground observations across Brazil, although their performance varied across different regions and seasons. The analyzed operational satellite products present a reliable source of data to several applications, which is an asset due to its high spatial resolution and low time latency.more
Grid datasets of sunshine duration at high spatial resolution and extending over many decades are required for quantitative applications in regional c…Grid datasets of sunshine duration at high spatial resolution and extending over many decades are required for quantitative applications in regional climatology and environmental change (e.g., modelling of droughts and snow/ice covers, evaluation of clouds in numerical models, mapping of solar energy potentials). We present a new gridded dataset of relative (and derived absolute) sunshine duration for Austria at a grid spacing of 1 km, extending back until 1961 at daily time resolution. Challenges in the dataset construction were consistency issues in the available station data, the scarcity of long time series, and the high variation of cloudiness in the study region. The challenges were addressed by special efforts to correct evident breaks in the station series and by adopting an analysis method, which combines station data with satellite data. The methodology merges the data sources non-contemporaneously, using statistical patterns distilled over a short period, which allowed involving satellite data even for the early part of the study period. The resulting fields contain plausible mesoscale structures, which could not be resolved by the station network alone. On average, the analyses explain 47% of the spatial variance in daily sunshine duration at the stations. Evaluation revealed a slight systematic underestimation (− 1.5%) and a mean absolute error of 9.2%. The average error is larger during winter, at high altitudes, and around the 1990s. The dataset exhibits a conditional bias, which can lead to considerable systematic errors (up to 15%) when calculating sunshine-related climate indices.more
Forty years of cloud observations are available globally from satellites, allowing derivation of climate data records (CDRs) for climate change studie…Forty years of cloud observations are available globally from satellites, allowing derivation of climate data records (CDRs) for climate change studies. The aim of this study is to investigate how stable these cloud CDRs are and whether they qualify stability requirements recommended by the WMO’s Global Climate Observing System (GCOS). We also investigate robust trends in global total cloud amount (CA) and cloud top temperature (CTT) that are significant and common across all CDRs. The latest versions of four global cloud CDRs, namely CLARA-A3, ESA Cloud CCI, PATMOS-x, and ISCCP-HGM are analysed. This assessment finds that all three AVHRR-based cloud CDRs (i.e., CLARA-A3, ESA Cloud CCI and PATMOS-x) satisfy even the strictest GCOS stability requirements for CA and CTT when averaged globally. While CLARA-A3 is most stable in global averages when tested against MODIS-Aqua, PATMOS-x offers the most stable CDR spatially. While we find these results highly encouraging, there remain, however, large spatial differences in the stability of and across the CDRs. All four CDRs continue to agree on the statistically significant decrease in global cloud amount over the last four decades, although this decrease is now weaker compared to the previous assessments. This decreasing trend has been stabilizing or even reversing in the last two decades; the latter is seen also in MODIS-Aqua and CALIPSO GEWEX datasets. Statistically significant trends in CTT are observed in global averages in the AVHRR-based CDRs, but the spatial agreement in the sign and the magnitude of the trends is weaker compared to those in CA. We also present maps of Common Stability Coverage and Common Trend Coverage that could provide a valuable metric to carry out an ensemble-based analysis of the CDRs.more
Accurate solar resource forecasting remains a challenge. Electricity grid applications require both days-ahead and intra-day prediction. Satellite-bas…Accurate solar resource forecasting remains a challenge. Electricity grid applications require both days-ahead and intra-day prediction. Satellite-based methods are known to be the best option for hourly intra-day solar forecasts up to some hours ahead. An adapted Deep Learning (DL) method has been recently reported to outperform the traditional Cloud Motion Vectors (CMV) strategy. This article analyzes the utilization of a well-documented computer vision DL architecture, the U-Net in various forms, for the satellite Earth albedo forecast problem (cloudiness), a straightforward proxy for solar irradiance forecast. It is shown that the U -Net performs better than advanced and optimized CMV techniques and previous art IrradianceNet, setting it at the state-of-the-art. The tests are done over the Pampa Humeda region of southeast South America, an area in which challenging cloud conditions are frequent. The data for this study are GOES-16 visible channel images. These images present a finer spatial (& SIME; 1 km/pixel) and temporal (10 min) resolution than previously explored data sources for solar forecasting. Moreover, the image size used here is x4 bigger (1024 x 1024 pixels) and the predictions reach further into the future (5 h) than in previous works. The analysis includes several ablation studies, involving different architectures, optimization objectives, inputs, and network sizes. The U-Net is optimized for direct and differential image prediction, being the latter a better-performing option. More notably, the U-Net models are shown to be able to predict cloud extinction, something that has been a barrier for CMV methods.more