Author(s):
Papachristopoulou, K.; Fountoulakis, I.; Bais, A.F.; Psiloglou, B.E.; Papadimitriou, N.; Raptis, I.-P.; Kazantzidis, A.; Kontoes, C.; Hatzaki, M.; Kazadzis, S.
Publication title: Atmospheric Measurement Techniques
2024
| Volume: 17 | Issue: 7
2024
Abstract:
Solar irradiance nowcasting and short-Term forecasting are important tools for the integration of solar plants into the electricity grid. Understandin… Solar irradiance nowcasting and short-Term forecasting are important tools for the integration of solar plants into the electricity grid. Understanding the role of clouds and aerosols in those techniques is essential for improving their accuracy. In this study, we introduce improvements in the existing nowcasting and short-Term forecasting operational systems SENSE (Solar Energy Nowcasting System) and NextSENSE achieved by using a new configuration and by upgrading cloud and aerosol inputs, and we also investigate the limitations of evaluating such models using surface-based sensors due to cloud effects. We assess the real-Time estimates of surface global horizontal irradiance (GHI) produced by the improved SENSE2 operational system at high spatial and temporal resolution (gkm, 15gmin) for a domain including Europe and the Middle East-North Africa (MENA) region and the short-Term forecasts of GHI (up to 3gh ahead) produced by the NextSENSE2 system against ground-based measurements from 10 stations across the models' domain for a whole year (2017). Results for instantaneous (every 15gmin) comparisons show that the GHI estimates are within ±50gWgm-2 (or ±10g%) of the measured GHI for 61g% of the cases after the implementation of the new model configuration and a proposed bias correction. The bias ranges from-12 to 23gWgm-2 (or from-2g% to 6.1g%) with a mean value of 11.3gWgm-2 (2.3g%). The correlation coefficient is between 0.83 and 0.96 and has a mean value of 0.93. Statistics are significantly improved when integrating on daily and monthly scales (the mean bias is 3.3 and 2.7gWgm-2, respectively). We demonstrate that the main overestimation of the SENSE2 GHI is linked with the uncertainties of the cloud-related information within the satellite pixel, while relatively low underestimation, linked with aerosol optical depth (AOD) forecasts (derived from the Copernicus Atmospheric Monitoring Service-CAMS), is reported for cloudless-sky GHI. The highest deviations for instantaneous comparisons are associated with cloudy atmospheric conditions, when clouds obscure the sun over the ground-based station. Thus, they are much more closely linked with satellite vs. ground-based comparison limitations than the actual model performance. The NextSENSE2 GHI forecasts based on the cloud motion vector (CMV) model outperform the persistence forecasting method, which assumes the same cloud conditions for future time steps. The forecasting skill (FS) of the CMV-based model compared to the persistence approach increases with cloudiness (FS is up to g1/4g20g%), which is linked mostly to periods with changes in cloudiness (which persistence, by definition, fails to predict). Our results could be useful for further studies on satellite-based solar model evaluations and, in general, for the operational implementation of solar energy nowcasting and short-Term forecasting, supporting solar energy production and management. © 2024 Copernicus Publications. All rights reserved. more
Author(s):
Arun, B. S.; Gogoi, Mukunda M.; Deshmukh, Dhananjay Kumar; Hegde, Prashant; Boreddy, Suresh Kumar Reddy; Borgohain, Arup; Babu, S. Suresh
Publication title: Environmental Science: Atmospheres
2024
| Volume: 4 | Issue: 7
2024
Abstract:
This study investigates the light absorption properties of organic aerosols in PM10 collected at a high-altitude location (2700 m a.s.l.) in the easte… This study investigates the light absorption properties of organic aerosols in PM10 collected at a high-altitude location (2700 m a.s.l.) in the eastern Himalayas from March 2019 to February 2020. The analysis reveals an enhanced light-absorbing signature of methanol-soluble brown carbon (MeS-BrC) extracts compared to water-soluble brown carbon (WS-BrC) within the optical wavelength range of 300–700 nm. MeS-BrC exhibits approximately twice the absorption compared to that of WS-BrC at 365 nm. The highest light absorption coefficients at 365 nm (babs365) are observed during spring for both MeS-BrC (9 ± 4.6 Mm−1) and WS-BrC (5.9 ± 4.2 Mm−1). Notably, the contribution of absorption from the water-insoluble fraction is relatively higher during the summer monsoon (45.2 ± 19.5%) and autumn (44.1 ± 18.4%). A significant linear relationship between WSOC and WS-BrC as well as OC and MeS-BrC at 365 nm suggests similar sources for BrC and WSOC (OC). Furthermore, significant positive correlations of babs365 (WS-BrC and MeS-BrC) with the water-soluble fraction of total nitrogen (WSTN) and organic nitrogen (WSON) indicate the presence of nitrogenous organic chromophores playing a crucial role in BrC absorption during spring and autumn. The mass absorption efficiency at 365 nm (MAE365) reveals that BrC in spring aerosols (WS-BrC: 1.5 ± 0.6 m2 g−1; MeS-BrC: 2.07 ± 0.8 m2 g−1) absorbs UV-visible light more efficiently compared to aerosols collected during other seasons. The enhanced MAE365 during spring resulted the highest simple forcing efficiency of 8.7 ± 3.9 W g−1 and 10.8 ± 5.2 W g−1 for WS-BrC and MeS-BrC, respectively, for a specific solar geometry and surface properties. This may be attributed to intense biomass burning followed by atmospheric processing of organic aerosols in the aqueous phase. These findings confirm the significant role of anthropogenic sources in enhancing BrC light absorption and radiative effects in this highly sensitive region of the eastern Himalayas. Such insights are crucial for devising effective strategies for mitigating climate change impacts in the Himalayan ecosystem. more
Author(s):
Karagiannidis, A.; Lahuerta, J.A.; Calbet, X.; Lliso, L.; Lagouvardos, K.; Kotroni, V.; Ripodas, P.
Publication title: Climate
2023
| Volume: 11 | Issue: 2
2023
Abstract:
The algorithm of the Convective Rainfall Rate with Microphysical Properties (CRRPh) product of the 2021 version of the Nowcasting and Very Short Range… The algorithm of the Convective Rainfall Rate with Microphysical Properties (CRRPh) product of the 2021 version of the Nowcasting and Very Short Range Forecasting Satellite Application Facility (NWC SAF) presents innovative characteristics. It was developed employing principal components analysis to reduce the number of utilized parameters and uses the same mathematical scheme for day and night, simulating the missing visual channels and satellite-derived cloud water path information that is unavailable during nighttime. Applying adequate statistical methodologies and scores and using rain gauge data as ground truth, it is shown that the new algorithm appears to be significantly improved compared to its predecessors in regard to the delineation of the precipitation areas. In addition, it minimizes the day–night difference in the estimation efficiency, which is a remarkable achievement. The new product suffers from slightly higher errors in the precipitation accumulations. Finally, it is shown that topography does not seem to affect the estimation efficiency of the product. In light of these results, it is argued that, overall, the new algorithm outperforms its predecessors and, possibly after adequate adaptations, can be used as a real-time total precipitation product. © 2023 by the authors. more
Author(s):
Zech, Matthias; von Bremen, Lueder
Publication title: Applied Energy
2024
| Volume: 361
2024
Abstract:
Energy system models rely on accurate weather information to capture the spatio-temporal characteristics of renewable energy generation. Whereas energ… Energy system models rely on accurate weather information to capture the spatio-temporal characteristics of renewable energy generation. Whereas energy system models are often solved with high abstraction of the actual energy system, meteorological data from reanalysis or satellites provides rich gridded information of the weather. The mapping from meteorological data to renewable energy generation usually relies on major assumptions as for solar photovoltaic energy the photovoltaic module parameters. In this study, we show that these assumptions can lead to large deviations between the reported and estimated energy, as shown for the case of photovoltaic energy in Germany. We propose a novel gradient-based end-to-end framework that can learn local representative photovoltaic capacity factors from aggregated PV feed-ins. As part of the end-to-end framework, we compare physical and neural network model formulations to obtain a functional mapping from meteorological data to photovoltaic capacity factors. We show that all the methods developed have better performance than commonly used reference methods. Both physical and neural network models have much better performance than reference models whereas operational use cases may prefer the neural network due to higher accuracy while interpretable, physical models are more suited to academic settings. more
Author(s):
Trindade, Ana; Portabella, Marcos; Stoffelen, Ad; Lin, Wenming; Verhoef, Anton
Publication title: IEEE Transactions on Geoscience and Remote Sensing
2020
| Volume: 58 | Issue: 2
2020
Abstract:
To address the growing demand for accurate high-resolution ocean wind forcing from the ocean modeling community, we develop a new forcing product, ERA… To address the growing demand for accurate high-resolution ocean wind forcing from the ocean modeling community, we develop a new forcing product, ERA*, by means of a geolocated scatterometer-based correction applied to the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) reanalysis or ERA-interim (hereafter referred to as ERAi). This method successfully corrects for local wind vector biases present in the ERAi output globally. Several configurations of the ERA* are tested using complementary scatterometer data [advanced scatterometer (ASCAT)-A/B and oceansat-2 scatterometer (OSCAT)] accumulated over different temporal windows, verified against independent scatterometer data [HY-2A scatterometer (HSCAT)], and evaluated through spectral analysis to assess the geophysical consistency of the new stress equivalent wind fields (U10S). Due to the high quality of the scatterometer U10S, ERA* contains some of the physical processes missing or misrepresented in ERAi. Although the method is highly dependent on sampling, it shows potential, notably in the tropics. Short temporal windows are preferred, to avoid oversmoothing of the U10S fields. Thus, corrections based on increased scatterometer sampling (use of multiple scatterometers) are required to capture the detailed forcing errors. When verified against HSCAT, the ERA* configurations based on multiple scatterometers reduce the vector root-mean-square difference about 10% with respect to that of ERAi. ERA* also shows a significant increase in small-scale true wind variability, observed in the U10S spectral slopes. In particular, the ERA* spectral slopes consistently lay between those of HSCAT and ERAi, but closer to HSCAT, suggesting that ERA* effectively adds spatial scales of about 50 km, substantially smaller than those resolved by global numerical weather prediction (NWP) output over the open ocean (about 150 km). more
Author(s):
Nielsen, Johannes K.; Gleisner, Hans; Syndergaard, Stig; Lauritsen, Kent B.
Publication title: ATMOSPHERIC MEASUREMENT TECHNIQUES
2022
| Volume: 15 | Issue: 20
2022
Abstract:
Random uncertainties and vertical error correlations are estimated for three independent data sets. The three collocated data sets are (1) refractivit… Random uncertainties and vertical error correlations are estimated for three independent data sets. The three collocated data sets are (1) refractivity profiles of radio occultation measurements retrieved from the Metop-A and B and COSMIC-1 missions, (2) refractivity derived from GRUAN-processed RS92 sondes, and (3) refractivity profiles derived from ERAS forecast fields. The analysis is performed using a generalization of the so-called three-cornered hat method to include off-diagonal elements such that full error covariance matrices can be calculated. The impacts from various sources of representativeness error on the uncertainty estimates are analysed. The estimated refractivity uncertainties of radio occultations, radiosondes, and model data are stated with reference to the vertical representation of refractivity in these data sets. The existing theoretical estimates of radio occultation uncertainty are confirmed in the middle and upper troposphere and lower stratosphere, and only little dependence on latitude is found in that region. In the lower troposphere, refractivity uncertainty decreases with latitude. These findings have implications for both retrieval of tropospheric humidity from radio occultations and for assimilation of radio occultation data in numerical weather prediction models and reanalyses. more
Author(s):
Marquis, J.W.; Dolinar, E.K.; Garnier, A.; Campbell, J.R.; Ruston, B.C.; Yang, P.; Zhang, J.
Publication title: Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology
2023
| Volume: 40 | Issue: 3
2023
Abstract:
The assimilation of hyperspectral infrared sounders (HIS) observations aboard Earth-observing satellites has become vital to numerical weather predict… The assimilation of hyperspectral infrared sounders (HIS) observations aboard Earth-observing satellites has become vital to numerical weather prediction, yet this assimilation is predicated on the assumption of clear-sky obser-vations. Using collocated assimilated observations from the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) and the Cloud–Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP), it is found that nearly 7.7% of HIS observations assimilated by the Naval Research Laboratory Variational Data Assimilation System–Accelerated Representer (NAVDAS-AR) are contaminated by cirrus clouds. These contaminating clouds primarily exhibit visible cloud optical depths at 532 nm (COD532nm) below 0.10 and cloud-top temperatures between 240 and 185 K as expected for cirrus clouds. These contamination statistics are consistent with simulations from the Radiative Transfer for TOVS (RTTOV) model showing a cirrus cloud with a COD532nm of 0.10 imparts brightness temperature differences below typical innovation thresholds used by NAVDAS-AR. Using a one-dimensional variational (1DVar) assimilation system coupled with RTTOV for forward and gradient radiative transfer, the analysis temperature and moisture impact of assimilating cirrus-contaminated HIS observations is estimated. Large differences of 2.5 K in temperature and 11 K in dewpoint are possible for a cloud with COD532nm of 0.10 and cloud-top temperature of 210 K. When normalized by the contamination statistics, global differences of nearly 0.11 K in temperature and 0.34 K in dewpoint are possible, with temperature and dewpoint tropospheric root-mean-squared errors (RMSDs) as large as 0.06 and 0.11 K, respectively. While in isolation these global estimates are not particularly concerning, differences are likely much larger in regions with high cirrus frequency. © 2023 American Meteorological Society. more
Author(s):
Wernecke, Andreas; Notz, Dirk; Kern, Stefan; Lavergne, Thomas
Publication title: The Cryosphere
2024
| Volume: 18 | Issue: 5
2024
Abstract:
The net Arctic sea-ice area (SIA) can be estimated from the sea-ice concentration (SIC) by passive microwave measurements from satellites. To be a tru… The net Arctic sea-ice area (SIA) can be estimated from the sea-ice concentration (SIC) by passive microwave measurements from satellites. To be a truly useful metric, for example of the sensitivity of the Arctic sea-ice cover to global warming, we need, however, reliable estimates of its uncertainty. Here we retrieve this uncertainty by taking into account the spatial and temporal error correlations of the underlying local sea-ice concentration products. As 1 example year, we find that in 2015 the average observational uncertainties of the SIA are 306 000 km2 for daily estimates, 275 000 km2 for weekly estimates, and 164 000 km2 for monthly estimates. The sea-ice extent (SIE) uncertainty for that year is slightly smaller, with 296 000 km2 for daily estimates, 261 000 km2 for weekly estimates, and 156 000 km2 for monthly estimates. These daily uncertainties correspond to about 7 % of the 2015 sea-ice minimum and are about half of the spread in estimated SIA and SIE from different passive microwave SIC products. This shows that random SIC errors play a role in SIA uncertainties comparable to inter-SIC-product biases. We further show that the September SIA, which is traditionally the month with the least amount of Arctic sea ice, declined by 105 000±9000 km2 a−1 for the period from 2002 to 2017. This is the first estimate of a SIA trend with an explicit representation of temporal error correlations. more
Author(s):
Urraca, R.; Martinez-de-Pison, E.; Sanz-Garcia, A.; Antonanzas, J.; Antonanzas-Torres, F.
Publication title: Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews
2017
| Volume: 77
2017
Abstract:
Solar radiation can be estimated by a variety of methods in an attempt to overcome the limitations of on-ground records. Novel methods are often appea… Solar radiation can be estimated by a variety of methods in an attempt to overcome the limitations of on-ground records. Novel methods are often appearing but these are rarely compared to others from a different approach. This study surveys the main types of estimation methods for daily Global Horizontal Irradiation (GHI), and then, one characteristic technique per group is selected, discarding possible hybrid approaches: a parametric model based on temperatures and precipitation (Antonanzas model), a statistical model (XGBoost), interpolated ground-based measurements (Ordinary Kriging (OK)), a satellite-based dataset (CM-SAF-SARAH), and a reanalysis dataset (ERA-Interim). The techniques are evaluated in relation to the seasonal variation, the clearness index and the spatial performance at 38 grounds stations in central Spain from 2001 to 2013. Three different tiers of estimations were obtained being SARAH and OK the best performing methods overall. The SARAH dataset (MAE=1.10±0.13 MJ/m2, MBE=0.22±0.36 MJ/m2) generated estimates with the lowest spread, but led to a slight overestimation in low-altitude flat areas. The OK (MAE=1.10±0.25 MJ/m2, MBE=0.00±0.31 MJ/m2) outperformed SARAH in these flat areas (high density of stations), but at the expense of a higher variability. Alternatively, SARAH surpassed Ordinary Kriging (OK) when the distance to the closest station exceeded 20–30 km. The ERA-Interim reanalysis and the XGBoost were in the second tier of estimations, and the parametric model yielded the worst results overall. ERA-Interim exhibited a systematic overestimation. The locally trained Antonanzas and XGBoost struggled to model the atmospheric transmissivity, showing large positive errors in spring months and a small underestimation of clear-sky days. Finally, a summary with the strengths and weaknesses of the five methods provides a deeper understanding for the selection of the adequate estimation approach. more
Author(s):
Harenda, Kamila M.; Markowicz, Krzysztof M.; Poczta, Patryk; Stachlewska, Iwona S.; Bojanowski, Jedrzej S.; Czernecki, Bartosz; McArthur, Alasdair; Schuetemeyer, Dirk; Chojnicki, Bogdan H.
Publication title: AGRICULTURAL AND FOREST METEOROLOGY
2022
| Volume: 316
2022
Abstract:
The productivity response of a peatland ecosystem in Rzecin, Poland, was determined based on varying aerosols abundant in the atmosphere. The study wa… The productivity response of a peatland ecosystem in Rzecin, Poland, was determined based on varying aerosols abundant in the atmosphere. The study was done with the use of a multifactorial model that combined atmo-spheric and ecosystem modules to describe plant photosynthetic ability from different perspectives. The Gross Ecosystem Production (GEP) was calculated for real conditions in the period from May through September 2018. This period was characterized by increased air temperatures (1.4 degrees C) and reduced precipitation (17%), when compared to the long-term averages (1981-2010) for the studied area. This also aligned with expected direction of climate change predictions. The multifactorial model was used to show that, depending on the aerosol situation, the peatland ecosystem may react with an average increase (8.2%) as well as a decrease (6%) of GEP during the growing season. The modification of atmospheric optical properties with a step-wise increase of aerosol optical depth (AOD) by 0.2 in relation to the observed value, resulted in the increase of diffuse index (DI) of circa 22%, the decrease of photosynthetic photon flux density (PPFD) of circa 5%, and the increase of GEP of circa 8% in each of analyzed months. The GEP reduction (6%) was caused by the absorbing aerosol presence characterized by low single scattering albedo (SSA) value. Consequently, the CO2 uptake process could not be maximized by the ecosystem due to reduced levels of available radiant energy. Conversely, the effect of non-absorbing aerosols presence on GEP was found negligible due to the continental clean aerosols prevailed in the air mass during the study period. Generally speaking, the estimation of the effects of aerosol optical properties on Rzecin peatland production shows that more absorbing aerosols occurrence cause GEP reduction while AOD rise results in GEP gain. more