Author(s):
Docquier, D.; Massonnet, F.; Ragone, F.; Sticker, A.; Fichefet, T.; Vannitsem, S.
Publication title: Scientific Reports
2024
| Volume: 14 | Issue: 1
2024
Abstract:
Arctic sea-ice extent has strongly decreased since the beginning of satellite observations in the late 1970s. While several drivers are known to be im… Arctic sea-ice extent has strongly decreased since the beginning of satellite observations in the late 1970s. While several drivers are known to be implicated, their respective contribution is not fully understood. Here, we apply the Liang-Kleeman information flow method to five different large ensembles from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) over the 1970-2060 period to investigate the extent to which fluctuations in winter sea-ice volume, air temperature and ocean heat transport drive changes in subsequent summer Arctic sea-ice extent. This allows us to go beyond classical correlation analyses. Results show that air temperature is the most important controlling factor of summer sea-ice extent at interannual time scale, and that winter sea-ice volume and Atlantic Ocean heat transport play a secondary role. If we replace air temperature by net shortwave and downward longwave radiations, we find that the sum of influences from both radiations is almost similar to the air temperature influence, with the longwave radiation being dominant in driving changes in summer sea-ice extent. Finally, we find that the influence of air temperature is more prominent during periods of large sea-ice reduction and that this temperature influence has overall increased since 1970. © The Author(s) 2024. more
Author(s):
Liang, H.; Zhou, W.
Publication title: Cryosphere
2024
| Volume: 18 | Issue: 8
2024
Abstract:
Arctic summer sea ice has shrunk considerably in recent decades. This study investigates springtime sea-ice surface melt onset in the Laptev Sea and E… Arctic summer sea ice has shrunk considerably in recent decades. This study investigates springtime sea-ice surface melt onset in the Laptev Sea and East Siberian Sea, which are key seas along the Northeast Passage. Instead of region-mean melt onset, we define an index of melt advance, which is the areal percentage of a sea that has experienced sea-ice surface melting before the end of May. Four representative scenarios of melt advance in the region are identified. Each scenario is accompanied by a combination of distinct patterns between atmospheric circulation, atmospheric thermodynamic state, sea-ice cover (polynya activity), and surface energy balance in May. In general, concurrent with faster melt advance are a warmer and wetter atmosphere, less sea-ice cover, and surface energy gains in spring. Melt advance can be potentially used in the practical seasonal prediction of summer sea-ice cover. This study suggests the interannual and interdecadal flexibility of spring circulation in the lower troposphere and the significance of seasonal evolution in the Arctic. © Copyright: more
Author(s):
Duspayev, A.; Flanner, M.G.; Riihelä, A.
Publication title: Geophysical Research Letters
2024
| Volume: 51 | Issue: 14
2024
Abstract:
Sea ice cools Earth by reducing its absorbed solar energy. We combine radiative transfer modeling with satellite-derived surface albedo, sea ice, and … Sea ice cools Earth by reducing its absorbed solar energy. We combine radiative transfer modeling with satellite-derived surface albedo, sea ice, and cloud distributions to quantify the top-of-atmosphere sea ice radiative effect (SIRE). Averaged over 1980–2023, Arctic and Antarctic SIREs range from −0.64 to −0.86 W m−2 and −0.85 to −0.98 W m−2, respectively, with different cloud data sets and assumptions of climatological versus annually-varying clouds. SIRE trends, however, are relatively insensitive to these assumptions. Arctic SIRE has weakened quasi-linearly at a rate of 0.04–0.05 W m−2 decade−1, implying a 21%–27% reduction in the reflective power of Arctic sea ice since 1980. Antarctic sea ice exhibited a regime change in 2016, resulting in 2016–2023 Antarctic and global SIRE being 0.08–0.12 and 0.22–0.27 W m−2 weaker, respectively, relative to 1980–1988. Global sea ice has therefore lost 13%–15% of its planetary cooling effect since the early/mid 1980s, and the implied global sea ice albedo feedback is 0.24–0.38 W m−2 K−1. © 2024. The Author(s). more
Author(s):
Alexandri, G.; Georgoulias, A.K.; Balis, D.
Publication title: Remote Sensing
2021
| Volume: 13 | Issue: 13
2021
Abstract:
In this work, the effect that two basic air quality indexes, aerosols and tropospheric NO2, exert on surface solar radiation (SSR) is studied, along w… In this work, the effect that two basic air quality indexes, aerosols and tropospheric NO2, exert on surface solar radiation (SSR) is studied, along with the effect of liquid and ice clouds over 16 locations in Greece, in the heart of the Eastern Mediterranean. State-of-the-art satellite-based observations and climatological data for the 15-year period 2005–2019, and a radiative transfer system based on a modified version of the Santa Barbara DISORT Atmospheric Radiative Transfer (SBDART) model are used. Our SSR simulations are in good agreement with ground observations and two satellite products. It is shown that liquid clouds dominate, with an annual radiative effect (RE) of −36 W/m2, with ice clouds (−19 W/m2) and aerosols (−13 W/m2) following. The radiative effect of tropospheric NO2 is smaller by two orders of magnitude (−0.074 W/m2). Under clear skies, REaer is about 3–4 times larger than for liquid and ice cloud-covered skies, while RENO2 doubles. The radiative effect of all the parameters exhibits a distinct seasonal cycle. An increase in SSR is observed for the period 2005–2019 (positive trends ranging from 0.01 to 0.52 W/m2/year), which is mostly related to a decrease in the aerosol optical depth and the liquid cloud fraction. more
Author(s):
Fountoulakis, I.; Kosmopoulos, P.; Papachristopoulou, K.; Raptis, I.-P.; Mamouri, R.-E.; Nisantzi, A.; Gkikas, A.; Witthuhn, J.; Bley, S.; Moustaka, A.; Buehl, J.; Seifert, P.; Hadjimitsis, D.G.; Kontoes, C.; Kazadzis, S.
Publication title: Remote Sensing
2021
| Volume: 13 | Issue: 12
2021
Abstract:
Cyprus plans to drastically increase the share of renewable energy sources from 13.9% in 2020 to 22.9% in 2030. Solar energy can play a key role in th… Cyprus plans to drastically increase the share of renewable energy sources from 13.9% in 2020 to 22.9% in 2030. Solar energy can play a key role in the effort to fulfil this goal. The potential for production of solar energy over the island is much higher than most of European territory because of the low latitude of the island and the nearly cloudless summers. In this study, high quality and fine resolution satellite retrievals of aerosols and dust, from the newly developed MIDAS climatology, and information for clouds from CM SAF are used in order to quantify the effects of aerosols, dust, and clouds on the levels of surface solar radiation for 2004–2017 and the corresponding financial loss for different types of installations for the production of solar energy. Surface solar radiation climatology has also been developed based on the above information. Ground-based measurements were also incorporated to study the contribution of different species to the aerosol mixture and the effects of day-to-day variability of aerosols on SSR. Aerosols attenuate 5–10% of the annual global horizontal irradiation and 15–35% of the annual direct normal irradiation, while clouds attenuate 25–30% and 35–50% respectively. Dust is responsible for 30–50% of the overall attenuation by aerosols and is the main regulator of the variability of total aerosol. All-sky annual global horizontal irradiation increased significantly in the period of study by 2%, which was mainly attributed to changes in cloudiness. more
Author(s):
Papachristopoulou, K.; Fountoulakis, I.; Bais, A.F.; Psiloglou, B.E.; Papadimitriou, N.; Raptis, I.-P.; Kazantzidis, A.; Kontoes, C.; Hatzaki, M.; Kazadzis, S.
Publication title: Atmospheric Measurement Techniques
2024
| Volume: 17 | Issue: 7
2024
Abstract:
Solar irradiance nowcasting and short-Term forecasting are important tools for the integration of solar plants into the electricity grid. Understandin… Solar irradiance nowcasting and short-Term forecasting are important tools for the integration of solar plants into the electricity grid. Understanding the role of clouds and aerosols in those techniques is essential for improving their accuracy. In this study, we introduce improvements in the existing nowcasting and short-Term forecasting operational systems SENSE (Solar Energy Nowcasting System) and NextSENSE achieved by using a new configuration and by upgrading cloud and aerosol inputs, and we also investigate the limitations of evaluating such models using surface-based sensors due to cloud effects. We assess the real-Time estimates of surface global horizontal irradiance (GHI) produced by the improved SENSE2 operational system at high spatial and temporal resolution (gkm, 15gmin) for a domain including Europe and the Middle East-North Africa (MENA) region and the short-Term forecasts of GHI (up to 3gh ahead) produced by the NextSENSE2 system against ground-based measurements from 10 stations across the models' domain for a whole year (2017). Results for instantaneous (every 15gmin) comparisons show that the GHI estimates are within ±50gWgm-2 (or ±10g%) of the measured GHI for 61g% of the cases after the implementation of the new model configuration and a proposed bias correction. The bias ranges from-12 to 23gWgm-2 (or from-2g% to 6.1g%) with a mean value of 11.3gWgm-2 (2.3g%). The correlation coefficient is between 0.83 and 0.96 and has a mean value of 0.93. Statistics are significantly improved when integrating on daily and monthly scales (the mean bias is 3.3 and 2.7gWgm-2, respectively). We demonstrate that the main overestimation of the SENSE2 GHI is linked with the uncertainties of the cloud-related information within the satellite pixel, while relatively low underestimation, linked with aerosol optical depth (AOD) forecasts (derived from the Copernicus Atmospheric Monitoring Service-CAMS), is reported for cloudless-sky GHI. The highest deviations for instantaneous comparisons are associated with cloudy atmospheric conditions, when clouds obscure the sun over the ground-based station. Thus, they are much more closely linked with satellite vs. ground-based comparison limitations than the actual model performance. The NextSENSE2 GHI forecasts based on the cloud motion vector (CMV) model outperform the persistence forecasting method, which assumes the same cloud conditions for future time steps. The forecasting skill (FS) of the CMV-based model compared to the persistence approach increases with cloudiness (FS is up to g1/4g20g%), which is linked mostly to periods with changes in cloudiness (which persistence, by definition, fails to predict). Our results could be useful for further studies on satellite-based solar model evaluations and, in general, for the operational implementation of solar energy nowcasting and short-Term forecasting, supporting solar energy production and management. © 2024 Copernicus Publications. All rights reserved. more
Author(s):
Arun, B. S.; Gogoi, Mukunda M.; Deshmukh, Dhananjay Kumar; Hegde, Prashant; Boreddy, Suresh Kumar Reddy; Borgohain, Arup; Babu, S. Suresh
Publication title: Environmental Science: Atmospheres
2024
| Volume: 4 | Issue: 7
2024
Abstract:
This study investigates the light absorption properties of organic aerosols in PM10 collected at a high-altitude location (2700 m a.s.l.) in the easte… This study investigates the light absorption properties of organic aerosols in PM10 collected at a high-altitude location (2700 m a.s.l.) in the eastern Himalayas from March 2019 to February 2020. The analysis reveals an enhanced light-absorbing signature of methanol-soluble brown carbon (MeS-BrC) extracts compared to water-soluble brown carbon (WS-BrC) within the optical wavelength range of 300–700 nm. MeS-BrC exhibits approximately twice the absorption compared to that of WS-BrC at 365 nm. The highest light absorption coefficients at 365 nm (babs365) are observed during spring for both MeS-BrC (9 ± 4.6 Mm−1) and WS-BrC (5.9 ± 4.2 Mm−1). Notably, the contribution of absorption from the water-insoluble fraction is relatively higher during the summer monsoon (45.2 ± 19.5%) and autumn (44.1 ± 18.4%). A significant linear relationship between WSOC and WS-BrC as well as OC and MeS-BrC at 365 nm suggests similar sources for BrC and WSOC (OC). Furthermore, significant positive correlations of babs365 (WS-BrC and MeS-BrC) with the water-soluble fraction of total nitrogen (WSTN) and organic nitrogen (WSON) indicate the presence of nitrogenous organic chromophores playing a crucial role in BrC absorption during spring and autumn. The mass absorption efficiency at 365 nm (MAE365) reveals that BrC in spring aerosols (WS-BrC: 1.5 ± 0.6 m2 g−1; MeS-BrC: 2.07 ± 0.8 m2 g−1) absorbs UV-visible light more efficiently compared to aerosols collected during other seasons. The enhanced MAE365 during spring resulted the highest simple forcing efficiency of 8.7 ± 3.9 W g−1 and 10.8 ± 5.2 W g−1 for WS-BrC and MeS-BrC, respectively, for a specific solar geometry and surface properties. This may be attributed to intense biomass burning followed by atmospheric processing of organic aerosols in the aqueous phase. These findings confirm the significant role of anthropogenic sources in enhancing BrC light absorption and radiative effects in this highly sensitive region of the eastern Himalayas. Such insights are crucial for devising effective strategies for mitigating climate change impacts in the Himalayan ecosystem. more
Author(s):
Karagiannidis, A.; Lahuerta, J.A.; Calbet, X.; Lliso, L.; Lagouvardos, K.; Kotroni, V.; Ripodas, P.
Publication title: Climate
2023
| Volume: 11 | Issue: 2
2023
Abstract:
The algorithm of the Convective Rainfall Rate with Microphysical Properties (CRRPh) product of the 2021 version of the Nowcasting and Very Short Range… The algorithm of the Convective Rainfall Rate with Microphysical Properties (CRRPh) product of the 2021 version of the Nowcasting and Very Short Range Forecasting Satellite Application Facility (NWC SAF) presents innovative characteristics. It was developed employing principal components analysis to reduce the number of utilized parameters and uses the same mathematical scheme for day and night, simulating the missing visual channels and satellite-derived cloud water path information that is unavailable during nighttime. Applying adequate statistical methodologies and scores and using rain gauge data as ground truth, it is shown that the new algorithm appears to be significantly improved compared to its predecessors in regard to the delineation of the precipitation areas. In addition, it minimizes the day–night difference in the estimation efficiency, which is a remarkable achievement. The new product suffers from slightly higher errors in the precipitation accumulations. Finally, it is shown that topography does not seem to affect the estimation efficiency of the product. In light of these results, it is argued that, overall, the new algorithm outperforms its predecessors and, possibly after adequate adaptations, can be used as a real-time total precipitation product. © 2023 by the authors. more
Author(s):
Zech, Matthias; von Bremen, Lueder
Publication title: Applied Energy
2024
| Volume: 361
2024
Abstract:
Energy system models rely on accurate weather information to capture the spatio-temporal characteristics of renewable energy generation. Whereas energ… Energy system models rely on accurate weather information to capture the spatio-temporal characteristics of renewable energy generation. Whereas energy system models are often solved with high abstraction of the actual energy system, meteorological data from reanalysis or satellites provides rich gridded information of the weather. The mapping from meteorological data to renewable energy generation usually relies on major assumptions as for solar photovoltaic energy the photovoltaic module parameters. In this study, we show that these assumptions can lead to large deviations between the reported and estimated energy, as shown for the case of photovoltaic energy in Germany. We propose a novel gradient-based end-to-end framework that can learn local representative photovoltaic capacity factors from aggregated PV feed-ins. As part of the end-to-end framework, we compare physical and neural network model formulations to obtain a functional mapping from meteorological data to photovoltaic capacity factors. We show that all the methods developed have better performance than commonly used reference methods. Both physical and neural network models have much better performance than reference models whereas operational use cases may prefer the neural network due to higher accuracy while interpretable, physical models are more suited to academic settings. more
Author(s):
Trindade, Ana; Portabella, Marcos; Stoffelen, Ad; Lin, Wenming; Verhoef, Anton
Publication title: IEEE Transactions on Geoscience and Remote Sensing
2020
| Volume: 58 | Issue: 2
2020
Abstract:
To address the growing demand for accurate high-resolution ocean wind forcing from the ocean modeling community, we develop a new forcing product, ERA… To address the growing demand for accurate high-resolution ocean wind forcing from the ocean modeling community, we develop a new forcing product, ERA*, by means of a geolocated scatterometer-based correction applied to the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) reanalysis or ERA-interim (hereafter referred to as ERAi). This method successfully corrects for local wind vector biases present in the ERAi output globally. Several configurations of the ERA* are tested using complementary scatterometer data [advanced scatterometer (ASCAT)-A/B and oceansat-2 scatterometer (OSCAT)] accumulated over different temporal windows, verified against independent scatterometer data [HY-2A scatterometer (HSCAT)], and evaluated through spectral analysis to assess the geophysical consistency of the new stress equivalent wind fields (U10S). Due to the high quality of the scatterometer U10S, ERA* contains some of the physical processes missing or misrepresented in ERAi. Although the method is highly dependent on sampling, it shows potential, notably in the tropics. Short temporal windows are preferred, to avoid oversmoothing of the U10S fields. Thus, corrections based on increased scatterometer sampling (use of multiple scatterometers) are required to capture the detailed forcing errors. When verified against HSCAT, the ERA* configurations based on multiple scatterometers reduce the vector root-mean-square difference about 10% with respect to that of ERAi. ERA* also shows a significant increase in small-scale true wind variability, observed in the U10S spectral slopes. In particular, the ERA* spectral slopes consistently lay between those of HSCAT and ERAi, but closer to HSCAT, suggesting that ERA* effectively adds spatial scales of about 50 km, substantially smaller than those resolved by global numerical weather prediction (NWP) output over the open ocean (about 150 km). more