Author(s):
Wei, Chengqiang; Zhao, Pengguo; Wang, Yuting; Wang, Yuan; Mo, Shuying; Zhou, Yunjun
Publication title: Environmental Science and Pollution Research
2024
| Volume: 31 | Issue: 20
2024
Abstract:
This study uses aerosol optical depth (AOD) and cloud properties data to investigate the influence of aerosol on the cloud properties over the Tibetan… This study uses aerosol optical depth (AOD) and cloud properties data to investigate the influence of aerosol on the cloud properties over the Tibetan Plateau and its adjacent regions. The study regions are divided as the western part of the Tibetan Plateau (WTP), the Indo-Gangetic Plain (IGP), and the Sichuan Basin (SCB). All three regions show significant cloud effects under low aerosol loading conditions. In WTP, under low aerosol loading conditions, the effective radius of liquid cloud particles (LREF) decreases with the increase of aerosol loading, while the effective radius of ice cloud particles (IREF) and cloud top height (CTH) increase during the cold season. Increased aerosol loading might inhibit the development of warm rain processes, transporting more cloud droplets above the freezing level and promoting ice cloud development. During the warm season, under low aerosol loading conditions, both the cloud microphysical (LREF and IREF) and macrophysical (cloud top height and cloud fraction) properties increase with the increase of aerosol loading, likely due to higher dust aerosol concentration in this region. In IGP, both LREF and IREF increase with the increase in aerosol loading during the cold season. In SCB, LREF increases with the increase in aerosol loading, while IREF decreases, possibly due to the higher hygroscopic aerosol concentration in the SCB during the cold season. Meteorological conditions also modulate the aerosol-cloud interaction. Under different convective available potential energy (CAPE) and relative humidity (RH) conditions, the influence of aerosol on clouds varies in the three regions. Under low CAPE and RH conditions, the relationship between LREF and aerosol in both the cold and warm seasons is opposite in the WTP: LREF decreases with the increase of aerosol in the cold season, while it increases in the warm season. This discrepancy may be attributed to a difference in the moisture condition between the cold and warm seasons in this region. In general, the influence of aerosols on cloud properties in TP and its adjacent regions is characterized by significant nonlinearity and spatial variability, which is likely related to the differences in aerosol types and meteorological conditions between different regions. more
Author(s):
Gardner, A.S.; Gaston, K.J.; Maclean, I.M.D.
Publication title: Journal of Biogeography
2021
| Volume: 48 | Issue: 8
2021
Abstract:
Aim: Species respond to environmental conditions and so reliable assessments of climate suitability are important for predicting how climate change co… Aim: Species respond to environmental conditions and so reliable assessments of climate suitability are important for predicting how climate change could alter their distributions. Long-term average climate data are often used to evaluate the climate suitability of an area, but in these aggregated climate datasets, inter-annual variability is lost. Due to non-linearity in species’ biological responses to climate, estimates of long-term climate suitability from average climate data may be biased and so differ from estimates derived from the average annual suitability over the same period (average response). We investigate the extent to which such differences manifest in a regional assessment of climate suitability for 255 plant species across two 17-year time periods. Location: Cornwall in South-West England provides a case study. Taxon: Plantae. Methods: We run a simple mechanistic climate suitability model and derive quantitative estimates of climate suitability for 1984–2000 and 2001–2017. For each period, we run the model using climate data representing average monthly values for that period. We then run the model for each year using monthly climate data for that year and average the annual suitability scores across each period (average response). We compare estimates of climate suitability from these two approaches. Results: Average climate data gave higher estimates of suitability than the average response, suggesting bias against years of poor suitability in temporally aggregated climate datasets. Differences between suitability estimates were larger in areas of high climate variability and correlated with species’ environmental requirements, being larger for species with small thermal niches and narrow ranges of precipitation tolerance. Main Conclusions: Incorporating inter-annual variability into climate suitability assessments or understanding the extent to which average climate data might obscure this variance will be important to predict reliably the impacts of climate change on species distributions and should be considered when using mechanistic species distribution models. © 2021 The Authors. Journal of Biogeography published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. more
Author(s):
Jia, A.; Liang, S.; Wang, D.; Mallick, K.; Zhou, S.; Hu, T.; Xu, S.
Publication title: IEEE Geoscience and Remote Sensing Magazine
2024
| Volume: 12 | Issue: 4
2024
Abstract:
Land surface temperature (LST) is crucial for understanding surface energy budgets, hydrological cycling, and land-Atmosphere interactions. However, c… Land surface temperature (LST) is crucial for understanding surface energy budgets, hydrological cycling, and land-Atmosphere interactions. However, cloud cover leads to numerous data gaps in existing remote sensing thermal infrared (TIR) LST products, seriously restricting their applications. This article provides a comprehensive review concerning both LST recovery methodologies and 26 emerging all-weather products derived from polar-orbiting and geostationary (GEO) satellites. Clarifying product distinctions will enable end users to select suitable options for diverse research. Methodologies are categorized into spatiotemporal interpolation, surface energy balance (SEB)-based physical estimation, passive microwave (PMW)-based methods, and simulated temperature-based approaches. Historical research trajectories, strengths, limitations, and potential research directions of the methodologies and products are discussed. The review reports that existing all-weather LST products generally exhibit root-mean-square errors (RMSEs) of more
Author(s):
Zhou, L.; Lei, L.; Whitaker, J.S.; Tan, Z.-M.
Publication title: Monthly Weather Review
2024
| Volume: 152 | Issue: 3
2024
Abstract:
Hyperspectral infrared (IR) satellites can provide high-resolution vertical profiles of the atmospheric state, which significantly contributes to the … Hyperspectral infrared (IR) satellites can provide high-resolution vertical profiles of the atmospheric state, which significantly contributes to the forecast skill of numerical weather prediction, especially for regions with sparse observations. One challenge in assimilating the hyperspectral radiances is how to effectively extract the observation information, due to the interchannel correlations and correlated observation errors. An adaptive channel selection method is proposed, which is implemented within the data assimilation scheme and selects the radiance observation with the maximum reduction of variance in observation space. Compared to the commonly used channel selection method based on the maximum entropy reduction (ER), the adaptive method can provide flow-dependent and time-varying channel selections. The performance of the adaptive selection method is evaluated by assimilating only the synthetic Fengyun-4A (FY-4A) GIIRS IR radiances in an observing system simulation experiment (OSSE), with model resolutions from 7.5 to 1.5 km and then 300 m. For both clear-sky and all-sky conditions, the adaptive method generally produces smaller RMS errors of state variables than the ER-based method given similar amounts of assimilated radiances, especially with fine model resolutions. Moreover, the adaptive method has minimum RMS errors smaller than or approaching those with all channels assimilated. For the intensity of the tropical cyclone, the adaptive method also produces smaller errors of the minimum dry air mass and maximal wind speed at different levels, compared to the ER-based selection method. © 2024 American Meteorological Society. more
Author(s):
Gao, Y.; Xiu, Y.; Nie, Y.; Luo, H.; Yang, Q.; Zampieri, L.; Lv, X.; Uotila, P.
Publication title: Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans
2024
| Volume: 129 | Issue: 11
2024
Abstract:
In this study, the subseasonal Antarctic sea ice edge prediction skill of the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) and Subseasonal to Seasonal (S2S… In this study, the subseasonal Antarctic sea ice edge prediction skill of the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) and Subseasonal to Seasonal (S2S) projects was evaluated by a probabilistic metric, the spatial probability score (SPS). Both projects provide subseasonal to seasonal scale forecasts of multiple coupled dynamical systems. We found that predictions by individual dynamical systems remain skillful for up to 38 days (i.e., the ECMWF system). Regionally, dynamical systems are better at predicting the sea ice edge in the West Antarctic than in the East Antarctic. However, the seasonal variations of the prediction skill are partly system-dependent as some systems have a freezing-season bias, some had a melting-season bias, and some had a season-independent bias. Further analysis reveals that the model initialization is the crucial prerequisite for skillful subseasonal sea ice prediction. For those systems with the most realistic initialization, the model physics dictates the propagation of initialization errors and, consequently, the temporal length of predictive skill. Additionally, we found that the SPS-characterized prediction skill could be improved by increasing the ensemble size to gain a more realistic ensemble spread. Based on the C3S systems, we constructed a multi-model forecast from the above principles. This forecast consistently demonstrated a superior prediction skill compared to individual dynamical systems or statistical observation-based benchmarks. In summary, our results elucidate the most important factors (i.e., the model initialization and the model physics) affecting the currently available subseasonal Antarctic sea ice prediction systems and highlighting the opportunities to improve them significantly. © 2024 The Author(s). more
Author(s):
Chung, Eui-Seok; Soden, Brian J.; Huang, Xianglei; Shi, Lei; John, Viju O.
Publication title: Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
2016
| Volume: 121 | Issue: 6
2016
Abstract:
We assess the consistency of the satellite-based observations of upper tropospheric water vapor (UTWV) by comparing brightness temperature measurement… We assess the consistency of the satellite-based observations of upper tropospheric water vapor (UTWV) by comparing brightness temperature measurements from the channel 12 of High-Resolution Infrared Radiation Sounder (HIRS), the 183.31 ± 1 GHz channel of Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit-B (AMSU-B)/Microwave Humidity Sounder (MHS), and spectral radiances from the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS). All three products exhibit consistent spatial and temporal patterns of interannual variability. On decadal time scales, the spatial patterns of trends are similar between all three products; however, the amplitude of the regional trends is noticeably weaker in the HIRS measurements than in either the AMSU-B/MHS or AIRS data. This presumably reflects the greater clear-sky sampling limitations of HIRS relative to the other products. However, when averaged over tropical or near-global spatial scales, the trends between all three products are statistically indistinguishable from each other. The overall consistency between all three products provides important verification of their credibility for documenting long-term changes in UTWV. A similar analysis is performed for reanalysis-produced and model-simulated UTWV using the HIRS record as a benchmark. On decadal time scales, both reanalysis data sets and the multimodel ensemble mean have difficulty in capturing the observed moistening of climatologically dry regions of the subtropics, although the model-simulated trends are more consistent with the HIRS measurements than the reanalysis data. more
Author(s):
Okamoto, K.; Ishibashi, T.; Okabe, I.
Publication title: Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society
2023
| Volume: 149 | Issue: 755
2023
Abstract:
All-sky assimilation of infrared (IR) radiances has been developed for water vapor bands of the geostationary satellite Himawari-8 in the operational … All-sky assimilation of infrared (IR) radiances has been developed for water vapor bands of the geostationary satellite Himawari-8 in the operational global data assimilation system. Cloud-dependent quality control, bias correction, and observation error modeling are essential developments to effectively utilize the all-sky radiances (ASRs). ASR assimilation increases the assimilated number of observations by 2.8 times and improves the coverage relative to the traditional clear-sky radiance (CSR) assimilation. The additional observations better alleviate model dry biases in the middle and upper tropospheric humidity. ASR assimilation brings statistically significant improvements in the background (first guess) in humidity, temperature, and wind over the CSR assimilation. It also better improves short-range forecasts of the middle and upper tropospheric temperature and humidity up to day 3 in the Tropics. A mixed impact in the stratospheric temperature is under investigation. The impacts of various aspects of the ASR assimilation configuration are evaluated with sensitivity assimilation experiments. The interband correlation and cloud-dependent standard deviation of the observation error are crucial, whereas the cloud dependency of the correlation is not so important. Although ASRs at a single band were assimilated in many previous studies targeting severe weather using research-based regional assimilation systems due to decreasing independent information in the presence of clouds, they are distinctly inferior to not only ASRs at multiple bands but also CSRs at multiple bands in a global data assimilation system that contains fewer cloud-affected scenes. The cloud-dependent bias correction predictors are essential in the presence of observation-minus-background bias that increases with cloud effects. © 2023 Royal Meteorological Society. more
Author(s):
Baker, Jessica C. A.; de Souza, Dayana Castilho; Kubota, Paulo Y.; Buermann, Wolfgang; Coelho, Caio A. S.; Andrews, Martin B.; Gloor, Manuel; Garcia-Carreras, Luis; Figueroa, Silvio N.; Spracklen, Dominick, V
Publication title: JOURNAL OF HYDROMETEOROLOGY
2021
| Volume: 22 | Issue: 4
2021
Abstract:
In South America, land-atmosphere interactions have an important impact on climate, particularly the regional hydrological cycle, but detailed evaluat… In South America, land-atmosphere interactions have an important impact on climate, particularly the regional hydrological cycle, but detailed evaluation of these processes in global climate models has been limited. Focusing on the satellite-era period of 2003-14, we assess land-atmosphere interactions on annual to seasonal time scales over South America in satellite products, a novel reanalysis (ERA5-Land), and two global climate models: the Brazilian Global Atmospheric Model version 1.2 (BAM-1.2) and the U.K. Hadley Centre Global Environment Model version 3 (HadGEM3). We identify key features of South American land-atmosphere interactions represented in satellite and model datasets, including seasonal variation in coupling strength, large-scale spatial variation in the sensitivity of evapotranspiration to surface moisture, and a dipole in evaporative regime across the continent. Differences between products are also identified, with ERA5-Land, HadGEM3, and BAM-1.2 showing opposite interactions to satellites over parts of the Amazon and the Cerrado and stronger land-atmosphere coupling along the North Atlantic coast. Where models and satellites disagree on the strength and direction of land-atmosphere interactions, precipitation biases and misrepresentation of processes controlling surface soil moisture are implicated as likely drivers. These results show where improvement of model processes could reduce uncertainty in the modeled climate response to land-use change, and highlight where model biases could unrealistically amplify drying or wetting trends in future climate projections. Finally, HadGEM3 and BAM-1.2 are consistent with the median response of an ensemble of nine CMIP6 models, showing they are broadly representative of the latest generation of climate models. more
Author(s):
Li, H. L.; Ke, C. Q.; Shen, X. Y.; Zhu, Q. H.; Cai, Y.
Publication title: Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
2024
| Volume: 129 | Issue: 8
2024
Abstract:
There are significant differences in snow depth predictions among different earth system models, and many models underestimate snow depth, restricting… There are significant differences in snow depth predictions among different earth system models, and many models underestimate snow depth, restricting their application. Here, major factors influencing snow depth changes in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) were identified and evaluated. Based on satellite-derived snow depth and CMIP6 data, an ensemble learning model based on multiple deep learning methods (hereafter referred to as the Multi-DL model) was developed to predict future snow depth. According to satellite observations and two Operation IceBridge products, the Multi-DL model yielded root mean square errors of 7.48, 6.20, and 6.17 cm. A continuous decrease in snow depth was observed from 2002 to 2100, and the rate of decrease accelerated with increasing emissions. Under the highest emission scenario, the first snow-free year occurred in 2047, within the same decade as the first ice-free year (2056). The predicted warm season snow depth was sensitive to sea ice velocity, sea ice concentration (siconc), precipitation, sea surface temperature (tos) and albedo, while the predicted cold season snow depth was sensitive to tos, air temperature, and siconc. The above parameters introduce some snow depth uncertainty. This method provides new ideas for predicting snow depth, and the generated snow depth records can provide data support for formulating Arctic-related policies. more
Author(s):
Bilge, Tarkan Aslan; Fournier, Nicolas; Mignac, Davi; Hume-Wright, Laura; Bertino, Laurent; Williams, Timothy; Tietsche, Steffen
Publication title: Journal of Marine Science and Engineering
2022
| Volume: 10 | Issue: 2
2022
Abstract:
In response to declining sea ice cover, human activity in the Arctic is increasing, with access to the Arctic Ocean becoming more important for socio-… In response to declining sea ice cover, human activity in the Arctic is increasing, with access to the Arctic Ocean becoming more important for socio-economic reasons. Accurate knowledge of sea ice conditions is therefore becoming increasingly important for reducing the risk and operational cost of human activities in the Arctic. Satellite-based sea ice charting is routinely used for tactical ice management, but the marine sector does not yet make optimal use of sea ice thickness (SIT) or sea ice concentration (SIC) forecasts on weekly timescales. This is because forecasts have not achieved sufficient accuracy, verification and resolution to be used in situations where maritime safety is paramount, and assessing the suitability of forecasts can be difficult because they are often not available in the appropriate format. In this paper, existing SIT forecasts currently available on the Copernicus Marine Service (CMS) or elsewhere in the public domain are evaluated for the first time. These include the seven-day forecasts from the UK Met Office, MET Norway, the Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center (NERSC) and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). Their forecast skills were assessed against unique in situ data from five moorings deployed between 2016 and 2019 by the Barents Sea Metocean and Ice Network (BASMIN) and Barents Sea Exploration Collaboration (BaSEC) Joint Industry Projects. Assessing these models highlights the importance of data assimilation in short-term forecasting of SIT and suggests that improved assimilation of sea ice data could increase the utility of forecasts for navigational purposes. This study also demonstrates that forecasts can achieve similar or improved correlation with observations when compared to a persistence model at a lead time of seven days, providing evidence that, when used in conjunction with sea ice charts, SIT forecasts could provide valuable information on future sea ice conditions. more