We assess the consistency of the satellite-based observations of upper tropospheric water vapor (UTWV) by comparing brightness temperature measurement…We assess the consistency of the satellite-based observations of upper tropospheric water vapor (UTWV) by comparing brightness temperature measurements from the channel 12 of High-Resolution Infrared Radiation Sounder (HIRS), the 183.31 ± 1 GHz channel of Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit-B (AMSU-B)/Microwave Humidity Sounder (MHS), and spectral radiances from the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS). All three products exhibit consistent spatial and temporal patterns of interannual variability. On decadal time scales, the spatial patterns of trends are similar between all three products; however, the amplitude of the regional trends is noticeably weaker in the HIRS measurements than in either the AMSU-B/MHS or AIRS data. This presumably reflects the greater clear-sky sampling limitations of HIRS relative to the other products. However, when averaged over tropical or near-global spatial scales, the trends between all three products are statistically indistinguishable from each other. The overall consistency between all three products provides important verification of their credibility for documenting long-term changes in UTWV. A similar analysis is performed for reanalysis-produced and model-simulated UTWV using the HIRS record as a benchmark. On decadal time scales, both reanalysis data sets and the multimodel ensemble mean have difficulty in capturing the observed moistening of climatologically dry regions of the subtropics, although the model-simulated trends are more consistent with the HIRS measurements than the reanalysis data.more
Baker, Jessica C. A.; de Souza, Dayana Castilho; Kubota, Paulo Y.; Buermann, Wolfgang; Coelho, Caio A. S.; Andrews, Martin B.; Gloor, Manuel; Garcia-Carreras, Luis; Figueroa, Silvio N.; Spracklen, Dominick, V
In South America, land-atmosphere interactions have an important impact on climate, particularly the regional hydrological cycle, but detailed evaluat…In South America, land-atmosphere interactions have an important impact on climate, particularly the regional hydrological cycle, but detailed evaluation of these processes in global climate models has been limited. Focusing on the satellite-era period of 2003-14, we assess land-atmosphere interactions on annual to seasonal time scales over South America in satellite products, a novel reanalysis (ERA5-Land), and two global climate models: the Brazilian Global Atmospheric Model version 1.2 (BAM-1.2) and the U.K. Hadley Centre Global Environment Model version 3 (HadGEM3). We identify key features of South American land-atmosphere interactions represented in satellite and model datasets, including seasonal variation in coupling strength, large-scale spatial variation in the sensitivity of evapotranspiration to surface moisture, and a dipole in evaporative regime across the continent. Differences between products are also identified, with ERA5-Land, HadGEM3, and BAM-1.2 showing opposite interactions to satellites over parts of the Amazon and the Cerrado and stronger land-atmosphere coupling along the North Atlantic coast. Where models and satellites disagree on the strength and direction of land-atmosphere interactions, precipitation biases and misrepresentation of processes controlling surface soil moisture are implicated as likely drivers. These results show where improvement of model processes could reduce uncertainty in the modeled climate response to land-use change, and highlight where model biases could unrealistically amplify drying or wetting trends in future climate projections. Finally, HadGEM3 and BAM-1.2 are consistent with the median response of an ensemble of nine CMIP6 models, showing they are broadly representative of the latest generation of climate models.more
There are significant differences in snow depth predictions among different earth system models, and many models underestimate snow depth, restricting…There are significant differences in snow depth predictions among different earth system models, and many models underestimate snow depth, restricting their application. Here, major factors influencing snow depth changes in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) were identified and evaluated. Based on satellite-derived snow depth and CMIP6 data, an ensemble learning model based on multiple deep learning methods (hereafter referred to as the Multi-DL model) was developed to predict future snow depth. According to satellite observations and two Operation IceBridge products, the Multi-DL model yielded root mean square errors of 7.48, 6.20, and 6.17 cm. A continuous decrease in snow depth was observed from 2002 to 2100, and the rate of decrease accelerated with increasing emissions. Under the highest emission scenario, the first snow-free year occurred in 2047, within the same decade as the first ice-free year (2056). The predicted warm season snow depth was sensitive to sea ice velocity, sea ice concentration (siconc), precipitation, sea surface temperature (tos) and albedo, while the predicted cold season snow depth was sensitive to tos, air temperature, and siconc. The above parameters introduce some snow depth uncertainty. This method provides new ideas for predicting snow depth, and the generated snow depth records can provide data support for formulating Arctic-related policies.more
In response to declining sea ice cover, human activity in the Arctic is increasing, with access to the Arctic Ocean becoming more important for socio-…In response to declining sea ice cover, human activity in the Arctic is increasing, with access to the Arctic Ocean becoming more important for socio-economic reasons. Accurate knowledge of sea ice conditions is therefore becoming increasingly important for reducing the risk and operational cost of human activities in the Arctic. Satellite-based sea ice charting is routinely used for tactical ice management, but the marine sector does not yet make optimal use of sea ice thickness (SIT) or sea ice concentration (SIC) forecasts on weekly timescales. This is because forecasts have not achieved sufficient accuracy, verification and resolution to be used in situations where maritime safety is paramount, and assessing the suitability of forecasts can be difficult because they are often not available in the appropriate format. In this paper, existing SIT forecasts currently available on the Copernicus Marine Service (CMS) or elsewhere in the public domain are evaluated for the first time. These include the seven-day forecasts from the UK Met Office, MET Norway, the Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center (NERSC) and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). Their forecast skills were assessed against unique in situ data from five moorings deployed between 2016 and 2019 by the Barents Sea Metocean and Ice Network (BASMIN) and Barents Sea Exploration Collaboration (BaSEC) Joint Industry Projects. Assessing these models highlights the importance of data assimilation in short-term forecasting of SIT and suggests that improved assimilation of sea ice data could increase the utility of forecasts for navigational purposes. This study also demonstrates that forecasts can achieve similar or improved correlation with observations when compared to a persistence model at a lead time of seven days, providing evidence that, when used in conjunction with sea ice charts, SIT forecasts could provide valuable information on future sea ice conditions.more
An improved tropospheric nitrogen dioxide (NO2) retrieval algorithm from the Global Ozone Monitoring Experiment-2 (GOME-2) instrument based on air mas…An improved tropospheric nitrogen dioxide (NO2) retrieval algorithm from the Global Ozone Monitoring Experiment-2 (GOME-2) instrument based on air mass factor (AMF) calculations performed with more realistic model parameters is presented. The viewing angle dependency of surface albedo is taken into account by improving the GOME-2 Lambertian-equivalent reflectivity (LER) climatology with a directionally dependent LER (DLER) dataset over land and an ocean surface albedo parameterisation over water. A priori NO2 profiles with higher spatial and temporal resolutions are obtained from the IFS (CB05BASCOE) chemistry transport model based on recent emission inventories. A more realistic cloud treatment is provided by a clouds-as-layers (CAL) approach, which treats the clouds as uniform layers of water droplets, instead of the current clouds-as-reflecting-boundaries (CRB) model, which assumes that the clouds are Lambertian reflectors. On average, improvements in the AMF calculation affect the tropospheric NO2 columns by ±15 % in winter and ±5 % in summer over largely polluted regions. In addition, the impact of aerosols on our tropospheric NO2 retrieval is investigated by comparing the concurrent retrievals based on ground-based aerosol measurements (explicit aerosol correction) and the aerosol-induced cloud parameters (implicit aerosol correction). Compared with the implicit aerosol correction utilising the CRB cloud parameters, the use of the CAL approach reduces the AMF errors by more than 10 %. Finally, to evaluate the improved GOME-2 tropospheric NO2 columns, a validation is performed using ground-based multi-axis differential optical absorption spectroscopy (MAXDOAS) measurements at different BIRA-IASB stations. At the suburban Xianghe station, the improved tropospheric NO2 dataset shows better agreement with coincident ground-based measurements with a correlation coefficient of 0.94.more
Remote-sensing records over the last 40 years have revealed large year-to-year global and regional variability in Antarctic sea ice extent. Sea ice ar…Remote-sensing records over the last 40 years have revealed large year-to-year global and regional variability in Antarctic sea ice extent. Sea ice area and extent are useful climatic indicators of large-scale variability, but they do not allow the quantification of regions of distinct variability in sea ice concentration (SIC). This is particularly relevant in the marginal ice zone (MIZ), which is a transitional region between the open ocean and pack ice, where the exchanges between ocean, sea ice and atmosphere are more intense. The MIZ is circumpolar and broader in the Antarctic than in the Arctic. Its extent is inferred from satellite-derived SIC using the 15 %-80 % range, assumed to be indicative of open drift or partly closed sea ice conditions typical of the ice edge. This proxy has been proven effective in the Arctic, but it is deemed less reliable in the Southern Ocean, where sea ice type is unrelated to the concentration value, since wave penetration and free-drift conditions have been reported with 100 % cover. The aim of this paper is to propose an alternative indicator for detecting MIZ conditions in Antarctic sea ice, which can be used to quantify variability at the climatological scale on the ice-covered Southern Ocean over the seasons, as well as to derive maps of probability of encountering a certain degree of variability in the expected monthly SIC value. The proposed indicator is based on statistical properties of the SIC; it has been tested on the available climate data records to derive maps of the MIZ distribution over the year and compared with the threshold-based MIZ definition. The results present a revised view of the circumpolar MIZ variability and seasonal cycle, with a rapid increase in the extent and saturation in winter, as opposed to the steady increase from summer to spring reported in the literature. It also reconciles the discordant MIZ extent estimates using the SIC threshold from different algorithms. This indicator complements the use of the MIZ extent and fraction, allowing the derivation of the climatological probability of exceeding a certain threshold of SIC variability, which can be used for planning observational networks and navigation routes, as well as for detecting changes in the variability when using climatological baselines for different periods.more
Arctic sea ice motion information provides an important scientific basis for revealing the changing mechanism of Arctic sea ice and assessing the navi…Arctic sea ice motion information provides an important scientific basis for revealing the changing mechanism of Arctic sea ice and assessing the navigational safety of Arctic waterways. For now, many satellite derived Arctic sea ice motion products have been released but few studies have conducted comparisons of these products. In this study, eleven satellite sea ice motion products from the Ocean and Sea Ice Satellite Application Facility (OSI SAF), the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC), and the French Research Institute for the Exploitation of the Seas (Ifremer) were systematically evaluated and compared based on buoys from the International Arctic Buoy Program (IABP) and the Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate (MOSAiC) over 2018–2020. The results show that the mean absolute errors (MAEs) of ice speed for these products are 1.15–2.26 km/d and the MAEs of ice motion angle are 14.93–23.19°. Among all products, Ifremer_AMSR2 achieves the best accuracy in terms of speed error, NSIDC_Pathfinder shows the lowest angle error and OSI-405-c_Merged performs best in sea-ice drift trajectory reconstruction. Moreover, season, region, data source, ice drift tracking algorithm, and time interval all influence the accuracy of these products: (1) The sea ice motion bias in the freezing season (1.04–1.96 km/d and 11.93–22.41°) is smaller than that in the melting season (1.13–3.90 km/d and 14.41–27.41°) for most of the products. (2) Most products perform worst in East Greenland, where ice movements are fast and complex. (3) The accuracies of the products derived from AMSR-2 remotely sensed data are better than those from other data sources. (4) The continuous maximum cross-correlation (CMCC) algorithm outperforms the maximum cross-correlation (MCC) algorithm in sea ice drift retrieval. (5) The MAEs of sea ice motion with longer time interval are relatively smaller. Overall, the results indicate that the eleven remote sensing Arctic sea ice drift products are of practical use for data assimilation and model validation if uncertainties are appropriately considered. Furthermore, this study provides some improvement directions for sea ice drift retrieval from satellite data.more
A new generation of cloud radars, with the ability to make observations close to the surface, presents the possibility of observing fog properties wit…A new generation of cloud radars, with the ability to make observations close to the surface, presents the possibility of observing fog properties with better insight than was previously possible. The use of these instruments as part of an operational observation network could improve the prediction of fog events, something which is still a problem for even high-resolution numerical weather prediction models. However, the retrieval of liquid water content (LWC) profiles from radar reflectivity alone is an under-determined problem, something which ground-based microwave radiometer observations can help to constrain. In fact, microwave radiometers are not only sensitive to temperature and humidity profiles but are also known to be instruments of reference for the liquid water path. By providing the thermodynamic state of the atmosphere, to which the formation and evolution of fog events are highly sensitive, in addition to accurate liquid water path, which can be used to constrain the LWC retrieval from the cloud radar alone, combining microwave radiometers with cloud radars seems a natural next step to better understand and forecast fog events. To that end, a newly developed one-dimensional variational (1D-Var) algorithm designed for the retrieval of temperature, specific humidity and liquid water content profiles with both cloud radar and microwave radiometer (MWR) observations is presented in this study. The algorithm was developed to evaluate the capability of cloud radar and MWR to provide accurate LWC profiles in addition to temperature and humidity in view of assimilating the retrieved profiles into a 3D- and 4D-Var operational assimilation system. The algorithm is firstly tested on a synthetic dataset, which allows the evaluation of the developed algorithm in idealised conditions. This dataset was constructed by perturbing a high-resolution forecast dataset of fog and low-cloud cases by its expected errors. The algorithm is then tested with real data from the recent field campaign SOFOG-3D, carried out with the use of LWC measurements made from a tethered balloon platform. As expected, results from the synthetic dataset study were found to contain lower errors than those found from the retrievals on the dataset of real observations. It was found that LWC can be retrieved in idealised conditions with an uncertainty of less than 0.04 g m(-3). With real data, as expected, retrievals with a good correlation (0.7) to in situ measurements were found but with a higher uncertainty than the synthetic dataset of around 0.06 g m(-3) (41 %). This was reduced to 0.05 g m(-3) (35 %) when an accurate droplet number concentration could be prescribed to the algorithm. A sensitivity study was conducted to discuss the impact of different settings used in the 1D-Var algorithm and the forward operator. Additionally, retrievals of LWC from a real fog event observed during the SOFOG-3D field campaign were found to significantly improve the operational background profiles of the AROME (Application of Research to Operations at MEsoscale) model, showing encouraging results for future improvement of the AROME model initial state during fog conditions.more